On March 19, 2025, Iran may open a new chapter in its military aviation by unveiling the Su-35, a Russian-made multirole fighter jet. This information has been circulating across various defense circles and social media, although there has been no official confirmation from Tehran yet.

The Iranian Telegram channel Defender IRAN hinted at a possible event by posting: "Looks like we seriously need to wait for a surprise on March 19!"—alongside a blurred image of an aircraft, which experts identify as a Su-35. However, the reliability of this information remains uncertain.

Additional speculation is supported by reports from late 2024, particularly from the German outlet FlugRevue, which suggested that a Russian cargo plane may have delivered the first Su-35 to Iran last year. Yet, all these reports remain in the realm of speculation, as no official statements have been made.

The choice of March 19 as the potential unveiling date could have symbolic significance. This day falls on the eve of Nowruz, the Persian New Year, which begins with the spring equinox (likely on March 20, 2025). Rooted in Zoroastrian tradition, Nowruz is Iran’s most important holiday, marking renewal and national pride. Holding a military demonstration during this period could emphasize the modernization of Iran’s armed forces, giving the event a patriotic character.

Tehran has previously used such moments to showcase military strength—for example, in 2019, the unveiling of the Bavar-373 air defense system coincided with national celebrations.

If the Su-35 does indeed enter Iran’s arsenal, it could reshape the country’s defensive and offensive capabilities, particularly in strategically significant regions. Russian analysts suggest that the first aircraft (whether a single jet or a small batch) may be stationed at Hamedan Airbase in western Iran or near Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf coast.

Bandar Abbas, a key port city and Iran’s main oil export hub, is a potential deployment site. The city hosts refineries and terminals processing significant volumes of exported petroleum. Israel has long viewed Iran’s energy sector as a strategic vulnerability. Deploying the Su-35 in this area could signal Tehran’s intent to protect critical infrastructure from potential airstrikes, including those by Israeli F-35s or U.S.-backed Gulf state air forces.

The Su-35 boasts impressive capabilities that far surpass Iran’s aging fleet, which has been hampered by sanctions and a lack of modern technology. Designed by Sukhoi, this fighter jet features two AL-41F1S engines with thrust vectoring, reaching speeds of up to Mach 2.25 and a combat range of over 3,500 km with external fuel tanks.

Its Irbis-E radar can track up to 30 targets at a range of 400 km and engage eight of them, giving the Su-35 a significant advantage over Iran’s existing F-14s and MiG-29s.

The aircraft's armament includes a 30mm GSh-30-1 cannon (150 rounds) and 12 hardpoints capable of carrying up to 8 tons of weaponry: R-77 and R-73 air-to-air missiles, Kh-31 anti-ship missiles, and KAB-500 precision-guided bombs. It is also equipped with electronic warfare systems and missile warning sensors.

It is believed that these Su-35s may have originally been intended for Egypt, which ordered 24 jets in 2018 but canceled the deal in 2020 due to U.S. pressure and the threat of CAATSA sanctions. In 2022, satellite images showed these jets still at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant in Russia. Moscow may have decided to redirect them to Iran amid increasing military cooperation following the Ukraine conflict. If true, Tehran likely acquired them at a discount—possibly as part of a larger package that includes S-400 systems. However, there is no concrete evidence confirming this claim.

Even if the Egyptian-configured Su-35s come with downgraded systems due to export restrictions, they would still surpass most of Iran’s current aircraft, including the aging F-4 Phantom and domestically modified Saeqeh fighters.

Iranian military officials have been cautious in their statements but acknowledge the significance of acquiring modern aircraft. In 2024, Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi, commander of the Iranian Air Force, stated: "New fighter jets will bring our capabilities into the 21st century, ensuring we can defend our skies against any aggressor."

Iran’s air force currently has around 300 combat aircraft, but fewer than half are operational due to reliance on salvaged parts and dwindling pre-revolution stocks of F-14 missiles. Even a small number of Su-35s could be a game-changer, providing modern sensors, maneuverability, and firepower not seen since the heyday of the F-14.

Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, emphasized the importance of modernization in 2023, declaring: "Our enemies must know that we will match their technology step by step."

However, the broader impact of these aircraft depends on the number acquired and their intended role. A handful of Su-35s will not challenge Israel’s fleet of 400+ modern jets or U.S. carrier-based aviation, but they could complicate adversaries’ strategic calculations, especially when combined with Iran’s growing drone and missile capabilities.

Deploying the Su-35 near Bandar Abbas could deter attacks on oil infrastructure, while basing them in Hamedan might threaten U.S. assets in Iraq or support proxy forces in Syria. However, there are significant integration challenges: Iranian pilots, with limited experience on Russian systems beyond MiG-29s, will require extensive training, and sanctions could make maintenance and spare parts procurement difficult.

For now, the rumored Su-35 unveiling on March 19 remains an intriguing yet unconfirmed prospect, balancing Tehran’s ambitions with the realities of sanctions and logistical constraints—all set against the hopeful backdrop of springtime in Iran.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgtdAGtTXDQ&t=594s

#IRAN

28.02.2025 01:54