On August 8, 2025, Washington hosted an event that is already being hailed as a turning point for the South Caucasus. With the mediation of U.S. President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a historic document – the Joint Declaration on Peaceful Relations – intended to end decades of confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh.

This diplomatic milestone was accompanied by the announcement of a large-scale infrastructure initiative — the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The new transport corridor will pass through southern Armenia, linking Azerbaijan’s mainland with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The project includes railway lines, pipelines, and digital communication channels, to be implemented with the participation of American companies and investment funds.

The signing of the declaration under U.S. auspices marks a significant geopolitical shift. For the past three decades, Moscow has been the primary mediator in the Karabakh issue, but its influence is now visibly waning. Washington, in contrast, is consolidating its role as a key player, gaining direct access to the South Caucasus’ transport and energy arteries.

In the medium term, this could weaken Russia’s influence on regional politics, enhance Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s roles as transit hubs between Europe and the Middle East, and increase Turkey’s importance as a partner in security and infrastructure.

Ankara swiftly welcomed the Washington initiative. Turkish officials declared that the agreement opens “a new era of sustainable peace” and will help integrate the region into global trade networks. For Turkey, TRIPP represents both a diplomatic win for its ally Azerbaijan and an opportunity to expand its economic footprint in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

According to the plan, the transport corridor will become part of an expanded logistics network linking the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. This will give Armenia a way out of transport isolation and an influx of foreign investment; Azerbaijan, reduced logistical costs and a stronger position as an energy hub; and the United States, strategic access to new hydrocarbon supply routes bypassing Russia and Iran.

However, the declaration faces several potential challenges:

- Domestic political opposition in both countries dissatisfied with the compromises;

- Security concerns over the corridor’s passage through sensitive areas;

- The influence of third parties opposed to expanding U.S. presence.

The Washington Memorandum and the Joint Declaration are only the first steps. Implementing TRIPP will require substantial investments, the harmonization of technical and legal frameworks, and, above all, the political will of all parties involved.

If successfully implemented, the South Caucasus could, for the first time in decades, shift from conflict toward long-term development – and the United States could secure its role as an architect of peace and an integrator of regional infrastructure.

Expert Group CCBS

#ANALYSIS

09.08.2025 07:11