The idea of a possible unification between Romania and Moldova at the beginning of 2026 has once again moved from the realm of symbolic and historical-cultural discourse into the sphere of practical political discussion. The catalyst was a statement made in January by the Romanian President’s adviser on diaspora affairs, who said that Bucharest is ready to begin serious negotiations on unification at any moment, provided that such a decision is supported by the citizens of the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, the Romanian side emphasized that the initiative must come exclusively from Chișinău, and that the key mechanism for legitimization can only be a democratic process – above all, a referendum.

This position is consistent with Romania’s official policy, enshrined in the 2010 Treaty on Good-Neighborliness and Cooperation between Romania and Moldova, which recognizes Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while simultaneously emphasizing the “common language, history, and culture” shared by the two states. Since the early 2000s, Romania has been one of Moldova’s principal political and economic partners. Between 2021 and 2025 alone, Bucharest provided Chișinău with hundreds of millions of euros in grants, loans, and energy assistance, including supplies of gas and electricity during periods of crisis.

Additional momentum to the debate was given by a statement from Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who publicly said that she would vote in favor of unification with Romania if such a referendum were held. This marked the first time a sitting Moldovan head of state had expressed such a position so directly. Previously, officials in Chișinău generally limited themselves to references to “strategic partnership” and “European integration”, deliberately avoiding explicit assessments of a unification scenario.

Sociological data, however, present an ambiguous picture. According to surveys conducted by Moldovan research centers and international organizations between 2023 and 2025, public support for unification in Moldova has fluctuated between 30 and 40 percent, with pronounced regional differences. Support is significantly higher in Chișinău and the central regions of the country, and markedly lower in the south and in Gagauzia. In Romania, by contrast, support for unification has traditionally been higher, exceeding 60 percent in various years, creating an asymmetry of public expectations on opposite sides of the Prut River.

A major constraining factor remains the Transnistrian issue. The unrecognized region has been outside the de facto control of the Moldovan authorities since 1992, and Russian military forces are stationed on its territory. Any unification scenario would automatically raise the question of Transnistria’s status, transforming the issue from a bilateral matter into an international one and directly affecting the interests of Russia, the European Union, and NATO.

The geopolitical context lends the issue particular sensitivity. In the event of unification, the territory of present-day Moldova would effectively become part of the European Union and NATO, of which Romania has been a member since 2007 and 2004, respectively. This would entail a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power and a sharp reduction in Russia’s strategic space between Ukraine and the Balkans. For this reason, the idea of unification has traditionally been perceived in Moscow as a threat, while in Brussels it is viewed as a scenario requiring extreme caution and long-term preparation.

Thus, at the current stage, discussions of a possible Romania–Moldova unification should be seen not as preparations for immediate action, but as a political probing of the boundaries of what is permissible. Bucharest is shaping the framework within which it is prepared to act, while Chișinău is expanding its range of strategic options. Even without practical implementation in the near term, the very legitimization of the topic at the level of presidents and governments is already altering the internal and external configuration of Moldovan politics, turning the European vector from a policy priority into a question of long-term civilizational choice.

#MOLDOVA

#ROMANIA

14.01.2026 11:52