On July 10, 2025, a meeting will take place in Abu Dhabi that many analysts are already calling historic. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will attempt to achieve a breakthrough in the peace process — one that has the potential to finally end the decades-long Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Since early 2023, the two sides, with mediation from the EU and the United States, have been engaged in intensive negotiations to draft a comprehensive peace agreement. In March 2025, a preliminary consensus was reached on the core principles: mutual recognition of territorial integrity, renunciation of hostile rhetoric, border demarcation, and the opening of transport communications.

However, the process has since slowed. Key sticking points include:

- The legal formulation of the status of the border;

- Domestic political opposition in Armenia, where some sectors of society demand a referendum on the agreement;

- The so-called "Zangezur Corridor", in which Baku has a strategic interest, while Yerevan remains visibly cautious.

The choice of the UAE as the venue is no coincidence. The Emirates position themselves as a neutral diplomatic hub, enjoying the trust of both Baku and Yerevan. Moreover, Abu Dhabi maintains strong economic ties with both countries and is not involved in regional alliances that could exert pressure on the talks (unlike Moscow, Tehran, or Brussels).

The peace agreement could reshape not only Armenian-Azerbaijani relations but the entire geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus.

For Armenia:

·        The opportunity to open borders, restore the economy, and diversify its foreign policy.

·        Potential acceleration of integration into European and international structures.

·        The risk of internal political crisis if the public sees the concessions as excessive.

For Azerbaijan:

·        The consolidation of territorial gains as internationally recognized borders.

·        A land connection to Nakhchivan through Syunik (including a potential corridor to Turkey).

·        An enhanced international image as a “stabilizing power” in the region.

For the region:

·        A reduced likelihood of renewed military conflict.

·        The potential creation of cross-border transport and energy corridors (including those involving the EU and China).

·        A weakening of Russia’s traditional influence in the Caucasus.

Despite these encouraging signals, many experts point to a high level of mutual distrust and the absence of guarantees that any agreement will be implemented. In Armenia, pressure from the opposition and the diaspora is growing. In Azerbaijan, the narrative of Yerevan’s "complete capitulation" is gaining momentum.

The role of other regional actors — Russia, Turkey, and Iran — remains uncertain. Historically, they have sought to either dominate or balance the South Caucasus, and their response to a potential breakthrough may range from cautious approval to covert obstruction.

The upcoming talks in Abu Dhabi may represent the last real opportunity to end a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and undermined the stability of an entire region. In a time of global geopolitical shifts, both sides must demonstrate strategic vision — and the international community must provide the guarantees necessary to enforce any future agreement.

If a deal is signed, it will become one of the most significant diplomatic events in the post-Soviet space in decades.

#ARMENIA

#AZERBAIJAN

10.07.2025 07:05