Iran has officially confirmed that on July 25 in Istanbul, a new round of nuclear consultations will be held with representatives of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The main topic of the talks will be the implementation of obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the prevention of further escalation around Iran’s nuclear program.

The European side has set a strict deadline: if significant progress is not achieved by the end of August, the so-called “snapback” mechanism – the automatic reinstatement of UN Security Council sanctions – will be triggered. This could lead to full diplomatic and economic isolation of Tehran, reminiscent of the 2012–2015 situation.

According to European diplomats, this step is “not a threat but a measure to protect international security.” However, experts warn that such an ultimatum might push Iran toward radical actions.

Iran, represented by its Foreign Ministry and the Supreme National Security Council, declared its readiness to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) but emphasized that any inspections require separate approval from the Council. Tehran insists that allowing foreign inspectors “could pose a national security risk,” especially after the series of Israeli and US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities in June.

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that the “snapback” ultimatum is more of a pressure tool than an immediate plan to reimpose sanctions. The EU fears that a new wave of isolation could lead to the radicalization of Tehran and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of global oil and LNG exports pass.

According to Middle Eastern analysts from Omni and RadioFreeEurope, Iran is trying to buy time until autumn to strengthen its negotiating position, complete the modernization of its nuclear facilities, and bolster its military presence in the Persian Gulf.

The issue of whether to grant or deny access to IAEA inspectors may become the main bargaining chip. Tehran is likely to use it as leverage to ease sanctions, but in the event of failed negotiations, it may further restrict access to key nuclear sites.

If even minimal progress is achieved in Istanbul (for example, partial IAEA access), Europe may delay the activation of the “snapback” mechanism. However, if the talks reach a deadlock, the world could face a new wave of energy and political crises as early as September.

#EU

#IRAN

21.07.2025 07:13