U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that the United States has already achieved a “complete victory” in the conflict with Iran, emphasizing that control over Iran’s oil infrastructure remains one of the potential steps in Washington’s future strategy. These statements come amid ongoing intense military operations, which, according to experts, have evolved from a conventional confrontation into a complex geopolitical crisis with far-reaching economic and diplomatic consequences.

The military actions began in late February 2026 following a series of joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on targets in Iran, including the key oil export hub — Kharg Island — which plays a strategic role in Iran’s oil exports. American airstrikes on these sites inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, destroying dozens of targets, including air defense systems and command centers.

In response to the strikes, Tehran intensified missile and drone attacks against U.S. military bases, targets in the Persian Gulf, allied states, and civilian infrastructure in several regions. This has already led to a partial disruption of shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transport artery that carries up to one-fifth of the world’s oil exports, further fueling volatility in energy markets.

Washington and Tehran, through intermediaries, have drafted peace agreement proposals containing several ultimatum-style conditions aimed at halting hostilities. The U.S. plan, consisting of roughly fifteen points, includes, among other measures, the dismantling of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, cessation of aggressive actions, and partial lifting of sanctions. Iran, in turn, rejected this plan as “maximalist and unacceptable,” presenting its own demands, including an end to U.S. aggression and terrorist acts, security guarantees, reparations for damages, and the withdrawal of foreign troops from the region.

Despite official rhetoric expressing willingness for dialogue, both leaders demonstrate contradictory dynamics. Iran officially denies direct negotiations, although diplomatic circles in Pakistan and Egypt are considering a meeting of representatives on neutral ground to stabilize the situation. Pakistan has already expressed readiness to act as a mediator, partly due to serious economic risks for its own economy caused by disruptions in oil supplies.

Amid the conflict, Washington is reinforcing its military presence in the region, including the possible deployment of additional air and naval forces. Analysts suggest that these moves underscore the U.S.’s desire to maintain strategic advantage but also increase the risk of unpredictable escalation.

The economic consequences of the war are already being felt globally: oil prices remain high despite a brief recent decline, with further fluctuations expected depending on the development of the conflict and supply levels. Many countries in Asia and Europe are preparing plans to ensure energy security amid regional instability.

 

In such a complex environment, the key question for the international community remains unchanged: will diplomacy be able to alter the trajectory of the conflict and bring the parties to an acceptable agreement, or will the confrontation evolve into a long-term strategic rivalry with major geopolitical repercussions? The answer depends not only on military strategy but also on the ability of world leaders to account for economic risks and seek paths to de-escalation through dialogue.

CCBS Expert Group

#USA

#ANALYSIS

#IRAN

27.03.2026 10:56