Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually paralyzed despite the announced ceasefire between the United States and Iran, casting doubt on the prospects for rapid stabilization of global energy markets. According to monitoring data, traffic intensity has fallen to less than 10% of normal levels: over the past day, only a handful of vessels transited the strait, compared to more than a hundred under normal conditions.

Formally, the ceasefire reached in early April envisaged a gradual restoration of transit; however, in practice, Iran continues to maintain strict control over the strait. Vessel passage is permitted only with the approval of Iranian military authorities, and routes are laid close to Iranian territorial waters due to the threat of mines and ongoing security risks.

An additional constraint has been the effective quota on traffic: according to sources, Tehran allows no more than 10–15 vessels per day, which is several times lower than pre-conflict levels. At the same time, many international shipping companies and insurers remain reluctant to resume full operations in the region, awaiting clear security guarantees and transparent transit rules.

Amid the ongoing restrictions, hundreds of vessels — including oil and gas tankers — have accumulated in the Persian Gulf, increasing pressure on global supply chains. It is estimated that under normal conditions, about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so its effective blockage has already led to a sharp rise in prices and a reduction in supply on the market.

The situation around the strait is increasingly taking on a political dimension. Iran is not only controlling passage but is also considering introducing transit fees, which has drawn criticism from international organizations pointing to violations of the principle of freedom of navigation. Thus, even after the ceasefire announcement, this key transport artery remains an instrument of geopolitical pressure.

 

Overall, the current dynamics suggest that the ceasefire is largely formal and has not yet led to a restoration of normal economic activity. Even with further de-escalation, a return to previous shipping volumes may take weeks or months, while the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the main points of instability in the global energy system.

#IRAN

10.04.2026 07:21