Public support for Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing signs of weakening. According to the latest weekly survey published by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) on July 3, public trust in the president fell from 76.7% to 73.3% over the course of a week, while approval of his performance dropped from 70.4% to 66.9%. Although the figures remain relatively high, such a noticeable weekly decline is one of the most significant in recent months and has drawn the attention of both Russian and international analysts.

As Russia's war against Ukraine continues, Russian society is increasingly feeling the consequences of the prolonged conflict. Economic pressure, rising defense spending, regular Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory, disruptions to mobile communications and internet services in several regions, and continuing uncertainty over when the war might end are gradually affecting public sentiment. Analysts note that while the initial years of the conflict were marked by a "rally around the flag" effect that helped sustain public support for the authorities, by mid-2026 this effect has begun to weaken considerably.

The decline in public optimism is also reflected in a recent Gallup survey published in late June. According to the poll, around 60% of Russians believe the country's economic situation is deteriorating, while more than half of respondents say their personal standard of living has declined. Gallup also found that Russia's economic optimism index has fallen to its lowest level in nearly two decades, while public confidence in state institutions has gradually declined compared to the early years of the war.

Economic indicators reinforce these trends. Although Russia continues to report GDP growth driven largely by unprecedented government spending on the defense sector, the civilian economy is facing mounting pressure. High interest rates, persistent inflation, labor shortages, and rising prices for food and public utilities are eroding household purchasing power. Economists note that Russia's military expenditures have surpassed levels seen during the late Soviet period and are increasingly crowding out investment in civilian industries.

Public attitudes toward the war itself also appear to be evolving. According to several independent opinion surveys, while many Russians continue to publicly support the government's actions, the number of citizens favoring a negotiated end to the conflict is gradually increasing. Sociologists attribute this shift to growing war fatigue, worsening economic conditions, and concerns over the possibility of further mobilization.

 

At the same time, experts caution against interpreting opinion polls in Russia without considering the broader political environment. Under conditions of strict political control, criminal penalties for criticizing the military, and significant restrictions on freedom of expression, many respondents may be reluctant to express their true views. As a result, official approval ratings may not fully reflect actual public sentiment, and independent researchers recommend focusing on long-term trends rather than absolute figures.

Despite the recent decline in support, Vladimir Putin's political position remains stable due to the absence of meaningful legal political competition, the dominance of state-controlled media, and the Kremlin's continued control over key state institutions. Nevertheless, the combination of a deteriorating economic outlook and a prolonged war is creating new domestic political challenges that could increasingly influence public opinion in the months ahead.

CCBS Expert Group

#ANALYSIS

#RUSSIA

06.07.2026 08:58