Paul Goble: Armenia will look for another defender instead of Russia, and the composition of the peacekeepers may change Interview
(Exclusive interview with Turan of American political anslyst Paul Goble, who in 1992 used the option of settling the Karabakh conflict, which included the idea of exchange Lachin to Megri)
- You are the author of the idea of exchanging Lachin corridor to Mehri corridor. Does the recent situation around solution in Karabakh mean that your idea was realized ?
- My idea was much bigger, but the impulse behind the creation of a transit corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakchivan is an important step in the right direction and the one I advocated almost 30 years ago. I hope it will grow in importance and acquire a certain “sovereignty lite” with time.
- The statement of three leaders about solution singed on November 10 was done without US and France. What was the reason? What would be consicuences ?
- Russia wanted to show that it is the only power that matters in the region. The US is distracted, and France is still uncertain how to act independently. I suspect that when the new US administration comes in, Washington will begin to play a larger role again and challenge Moscow’s introduction of peacekeepers, something illegal under international law for a country that is a party to the conflict.
- How realistic is implementation of the provisions of the Statement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia?
- The important point here is that it was a joint statement not a treaty or an agreement beyond that. I suspect that there will be much testing of many of the provisions. That said, I expect the violence to ebb and Azerbaijan to focus on the task of reabsorbing the territory it has reacquired and Armenia on finding another defender now that Russia has abdicated that role.
- How do you assess the role of Turkey in this conflict ?
- Turkey played its cards well. It expanded its influence, but it also found that its ability to act is still limited by Russian opposition. I think however that Ankara’s role will grow and Russia’s will continue to decline.
- Could be possible location in Karabakh the peace keepers of the 3rd party?
- Of course, it is possible. It is my hope that the US and France will press for that so that the arrangements will be consistent with international law and not Russian force majeure.
- Can Azerbaijanis and Armenians live in peace in the region in the future?
- One hopes that will be possible, but it will happen only if both sides believe they get something out of hte arrangement rather than having one imposed by one or hte other or by outsiders.
13.11.2020 12:40


Russia and the Phenomenon of "People's Militias": Security or a New Threat?
17.Jul.2025
The US and the Transport Corridor Through Armenia: A New Geopolitical Chess Game in the South Caucasus
16.Jul.2025
Azerbaijan Initially Advocated for Direct Negotiations Without Mediators – Expert
15.Jul.2025
A Turning Point for the South Caucasus: Pashinyan and Aliyev Prepare for Critical Talks in Abu Dhabi
10.Jul.2025
The War Without an Exit: Russia's Stalemate in Ukraine
09.Jul.2025
President of Armenia Vahagn Khachaturyan: “We need peace — this is a new chapter in history”
08.Jul.2025
An Alliance Without Illusions: Why Russia Needs Azerbaijan
07.Jul.2025
Russia’s Economy Slips into Stagnation — Recession on the Horizon
05.Jul.2025
Massive Attack on Ukraine Follows Putin–Trump Call
04.Jul.2025
Georgian Parliament Strips Mandates from 12 MPs of Gakharia’s Party and Suspends Its Funding
02.Jul.2025