David Akopyan

Member of Board of Directors of APRI, Yerevan

As the world watches the geopolitical landscape shift under the weight of wars, economic tensions, and especially the disruptive force of the Trump Administration, Turkey has been turbo-charging its ambitions on the world stage. It may soon be a challenge for Ankara’s NATO partners, already rallying under the pressures coming from Washington.

While the West’s attention has been focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has seized the moment, expanding his country’s influence from the South Caucasus to the Horn of Africa, with a military presence in Libya and strategic alliances in Central Asia. As alliances are reshaped, Turkey stands poised to benefit across multiple regions, and its actions in the coming months may tip the scales of global geopolitics.

Turkey's Reawakening: A Response to Global Disorder

Turkey's rapid rise on the world stage is a product of this century’s global chaos. Once relying on a Western alliance and global stability, Turkey is now navigating a world where the rules are being rewritten. The erosion of the post-World War II order, characterized by international institutions and a predictable system of alliances, has created opportunities for states like Turkey. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Middle East upheaval, and the rise of populist movements in the West have all create once unimaginable openings.

Erdogan, whose leadership has been marked by a blend of assertive nationalism and opportunistic foreign policy, has seized upon these.

Turkey’s trajectory shifted dramatically following the 2016 coup attempt, which spurred Erdogan to consolidate power and rethink the country’s global positioning. No longer satisfied with a secondary role, he shifted to a more assertive foreign policy that often placed him at odds with traditional allies, including the United States and the European Union. Turkey's increasing isolation from the West and its growing alliances with regional powers and autocracies signaled the beginning of a new, more unpredictable chapter.

Erdogan’s ambitions are evident in Turkey’s deepening ties with Russia. The relationship is complicated, characterized by both cooperation and competition, particularly in Syria and the South Caucasus. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey has increasingly distanced itself from the West’s position on Russia. Ankara’s decision to purchase Russia’s S-400 missile defense system in 2019 was a direct challenge, signaling that Turkey was no longer content to play by NATO’s rules.

Since the Ukraine invasion, Turkey has tried to balance its relationship with Moscow while maintaining official support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This has allowed it to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine while also capitalizing on new economic opportunities created by the war.

Turkey in the Middle East: A Complex Role

Erdoğan has also sought to position Turkey as a leader of the Sunni Muslim world, leveraging its historical ties to the Middle East and role as a regional military power.

Turkey was first involved in the Syrian civil war in response to the Kurdish insurgency there, but has of late reached a new level. For years, Turkey’s relationship with Hay’atTahrir al-Sham (HTS), which overthrew the Assad regime in December 2024, had been complex: It simultaneously armed and trained HTS forces while officially designating the group as a terrorist organization.

This relationship has now deepened as HTS's leader—now Syria’s president—made his second foreign visit to Ankara. Turkey is now instrumental in shaping Syria’s new military, aligning with HTS’s security cooperation goals (even though HTS seeks to avoid overreliance on Turkey, as shown by its first diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia and expanding ties with other power centers. Nonetheless, with Russia preoccupied in Ukraine, Turkey has taken advantage of the vacuum to deepen its military presence, establishing bases and positioning itself as the de facto power broker in northern Syria.

Turkey’s position on the Israel-Palestine conflict adds another layer of complexity to its foreign policy. Erdogan has long presented himself as a champion of Palestinian rights, using Turkey’s diplomatic leverage to challenge Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Yet Turkey has maintained strong economic ties with Israel. This balancing act demonstrates a desire to retain influence over both the Arab and Western spheres.

From North Africa to the South Caucasus to Central Asia

Turkey’s growing presence in North Africa is another important aspect of its expanding geopolitical footprint. In Libya, where civil war has raged since 2011, Turkey has increasingly intervened on behalf of the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU). Turkish military support, including drones and fighter jets, has been crucial in turning the tide against rival forces backed by Russia and the UAE. By positioning itself as a key military player in Libya, Turkey has secured access to vital energy resources in the Mediterranean and expanded its influence in North Africa.

Turkey’s relations with the three post-Soviet republics of the South Caucasus — Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia — have evolved in distinct ways. With Azerbaijan, Turkey enjoys a deep military, economic, and political alliance based on ethnic kinship and Islamic solidarity, also serving as the main transit route for Azerbaijani oil and gas exports to Europe. With Georgia, relations remain cordial, characterized by growing trade and cooperation. In contrast, Turkey and Armenia have no diplomatic ties and minimal economic interactions, largely due to unresolved Armenian historical grievances following the Armenian genocide in early 20^th century and Turkey’s staunch support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Turkey’s decisive role in Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war was a pivotal moment, significantly weakening Armenia while strengthening Ankara’s influence in the region. By providing advanced drone technology, helping to reorganize Azerbaijani army as per NATO standards, and through military training and diplomatic backing, Turkey not only solidified its partnership with Baku but also challenged Russia’s traditional dominance in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, often described as a “natural ally” of Turkey, has become an essential partner in Turkey’s efforts to gain access to energy markets and strengthen its strategic position in Central Asia.

That’s critical, because former Turkic-speaking Soviet republics in Central Asia such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are emerging as key players and potential partners for Turkey, both politically and economically. Erdogan has made a concerted effort to forge economic agreements and expanding cultural ties. By positioning itself as the leader of the Turkic world, Turkey is seeking to shape the future of Central Asia, a region of increasing importance due to energy resources and strategic location.

Erdogan envisions a “Middle Corridor” project which connects Turkey to Central Asia and China as a symbol of Turkey’s growing ambitions. By bypassing Russia-controlled routes, Turkey hopes to assert itself as a central hub in global trade and infrastructure. The project could have profound implications for global supply chains, particularly amid growing tensions between Europe and Russia.

The Risks Ahead

As Turkey continues to expand its influence, it faces significant challenges that could undermine its ambitions. The most immediate comes from the potential resurgence of Russia, particularly in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The possibility of a more assertive Russia, emboldened by a potential peace deal with Ukraine brokered by the U.S., could jeopardize Turkey’s plans. Its close relationship with Azerbaijan, combined with its historical ties to Central Asia, makes it a target should Russia try to reassert control over these regions.

One critical question is whether Turkey and Russia can find a way to share influence, as they had in Syria and Libya – or will an emboldened Russia seek full control over Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia? For Erdogan, the prospect of Russia reasserting dominance in the region would be a bitter pill to swallow, particularly given Turkey’s close relationship with Azerbaijan — often described as “two states, one nation.” If Moscow becomes more aggressive, Turkey may be forced to either confront Russia’s ambitions directly or seek alliances to counterbalance Russian omnipresence.

Observing this complex and interconnected reality, it’s clear that over the past decade Turkey has gradually distanced itself from its reliance on Western security structures, instead positioning itself as an independent, multi-regional power, while still being NATO member. Leveraging its strategic location, military capabilities, and various historical ties that date to Ottoman times, Turkey is trying to shape the geopolitical landscape on its own terms. Whatever the outcome, for now Turkey is determined not to remain a passive player in global affairs.

As we move further into an era defined by unpredictability and power struggles, Turkey’s growing influence will likely be felt far beyond its borders. Whether it ultimately becomes a stabilizing force or an instigator of conflict in the years to come will depend on how it navigates the complex and rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

David Akopyan worked for 26 years for the United Nations in 15 countries including Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria, holding leadership positions as UN Development Program deputy director, country director and resident representative

 

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28.02.2025 01:02