David Akopyan

Member of Board of Directors of APRI, Yerevan

Armenia, located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, has long been pulled by the centrifugal forces of competing centers of gravity. Though its cultural instincts and democratic aspirations have long pointed West, the path to alignment with Europe has proven anything but straightforward. Hemmed in by history and geography, Armenia is increasingly learning that survival depends not on loyalty to a single bloc, but on agility in a fractured global order.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, for most Armenians, Europe appeared as the true center of gravity—the promised land within reach. Entrepreneurial and instinctively freedom-loving, Armenians were historically ill-fitted to the autocratic traditions of the Russian and Ottoman empires, always looking westward for alternatives. But aspiration soon collided with the realities of war, geography, and abandonment.

A generation ago, Armenia endured one of the worst shocks during the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Still recovering from the catastrophic 1988 earthquake, the country was thrust into a triple crisis in 1991: a full-scale war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, an economic meltdown stemming from the collapse of the centralized Soviet system, and a suffocating blockade by both Azerbaijan and Turkey. Yet, against all odds, Armenians managed to mobilize and prevail in what many considered an unwinnable war.

Unfortunately, victory bred complacency. From the late 1990s through the next two decades, Armenian leadership grew comfortable placing the country under the Russian security umbrella, assuming the status quo would hold indefinitely and that Azerbaijan, defeated and humiliated, would never return to the battlefield. In return, Moscow gradually seized control over strategic industrial assets, monopolized energy supply and distribution, and dominated Armenia’s economic space. The Russian market, with its lower standards and easier access, was perceived as a natural extension of Armenia’s economic life.

But short-term comfort came at a long-term cost. Military complacency became endemic, while Azerbaijan—empowered by surging oil revenues—quietly rearmed, preparing for a decisive revanche.

This pattern began to break in 2018 with Armenia’s Velvet Revolution. In an unprecedented show of unity, nearly the entire population—from artists to law enforcement—rose against corruption. The revolutionaries took office in May 2018, ushering in a new era of hope and reform.

However, good intentions were not matched with geopolitical experience, sophisticated diplomacy and administrative capacity. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale war under the cover of the global pandemic and just ahead of U.S. elections. The six-week war exposed grave weaknesses in Armenia’s defense posture, both within its borders and in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russian-brokered ceasefire of November 9, 2020, came dangerously close to capitulation, with Russian peacekeepers inserted as temporary guarantors.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shifted the strategic landscape. The South Caucasus fell further down Moscow’s priority list, while Ankara and Baku rose higher. In September 2022, Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper. The CSTO response was tepid; instead, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stepped in to halt further escalation.

In 2023, Azerbaijan launched a final assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in the ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians within days. Armenia stood helpless. The government realized, painfully, that it lacked both the diplomatic leverage and military capacity to protect its kin. Russian peacekeepers soon withdrew entirely.

The pivot to the West materialized formally on January 15, 2025, with the signing of a Strategic Partnership Agreement with the United States after two years of negotiation—just days before a new U.S. administration took office. While symbolically important, the agreement offered no security guarantees. Parallel negotiations with the European Union gained momentum. In pursuit of diversification, Armenia deepened military ties with France and India, acquiring modern weaponry and establishing alternative supply chains beyond the Russian sphere.

The roller coaster picked up speed in early 2025. Within a week of signing the U.S. agreement, the global order shifted again. The newly inaugurated U.S. president unveiled an agenda to unravel much of the post-WWII international framework. NATO began to fracture, and the once-solid U.S.-EU bond appeared increasingly fragile. Over the last four months, the transatlantic divide has widened—perhaps irreversibly.

This sudden shift left Armenia caught in limbo. Its western pivot thus acquired a fragmented character. Caught between Washington, Brussels, and key European capitals, Yerevan must now navigate an increasingly incoherent West. Unlike Ukraine, Armenia has yet to receive any clear reassurance from its democratic partners. Though they share values with Armenia, they appear unwilling to provide tangible security support for its vulnerable democracy.

Paradoxically, the only country to draw a clear red line was Iran. Despite its theocratic regime and decades of regional interventions through proxies, Tehran has consistently opposed any alteration of internationally recognized borders in the South Caucasus. It has repeatedly emphasized the inviolability of the 44-kilometer Armenia-Iran border, reaffirmed most recently during the Iranian defense minister’s visit to Yerevan. For Armenia, this unlikely alignment has offered a rare constant.

Meanwhile, Armenia’s strained relationship with Russia began to thaw. The reset in U.S.-Russia relations under President Trump gave Armenia some breathing room. The geopolitical chessboard is no longer binary. European actors also appear to be revisiting their posture, recognizing the limits of their reach in the region. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s appearance at the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow—a forced gesture of solidarity with Putin—caused surprisingly little backlash. The EU is showing more flexibility and understanding of Armenia’s precarious position — eager to support, but unable to protect.

Just days later, on May 20–21, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan for the first time in three years, signaling a potential reset. Strained Armenian-Russian relations, marked by Yerevan’s frozen participation in the CSTO and public outcry against Moscow’s response (or lack thereof) to the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, formed the backdrop for Lavrov’s visit.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated in a joint press conference that Armenia has not applied to join the EU, and no negotiations are underway concerning membership. He emphasized that the draft law on EU accession does not specify any timelines or mechanisms for accession and that future steps will be determined as the process evolves.

It is quite clear that a rapidly evolving global landscape has forced Armenia into constant tactical adjustment — but it also offers space for a deeper strategic recalibration. More specifically on Russia, a careful look suggests this is not a reset but a nuanced recalibration of diplomatic relations. Armenia is navigating on three intertwined layers—political, defense, and economic. Lavrov has stated that Russia has no objection to Armenia purchasing arms from other suppliers, but Russia considers France a hostile party due to its support for Ukraine.

On May 26, 2025, just days later, the French Foreign Minister visited Yerevan and, with his Armenian counterpart, signed a Declaration of Intent, marking a step toward a strategic partnership between Armenia and France. French Foreign Minister Barrot emphasized France's unwavering support for Armenia's development, noting that France is ready to further deepen and expand its relations with Armenia. France announced plans to open a consulate in the most vulnerable Syunik region of Armenia.

Armenia’s leadership has learned a painful but valuable lesson: never again should the country bet all on a single alliance—be it democratic or autocratic. Facing an existential threat from Azerbaijan, Armenia has adopted a multi-vector foreign policy, seeking to diversify across security, economy, and diplomacy. This is less about hedging and more about survival.

Armenia’s arch-rival, Azerbaijan, meanwhile, continues to project growing assertiveness. After raising hopes a few months ago, the peace talks have slowed. Baku constantly escalates its demands—insisting on constitutional changes in Armenia, referring to parts of Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan," and more. Its aggressive stance, extending beyond pressure on Armenia, has begun to alarm not only the West but also Russia and other neighbors. Azerbaijan recently signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with China and, beyond the South Caucasus, has taken a proactive stand on issues in the Middle East and Caspian region. Projecting itself as a newly born regional superpower, its posture leans more toward domination than peace and cooperation in the region.

Armenia stands at a pivotal moment in its modern history—bruised but not broken, humbled but wiser. The days of binary allegiances are over. The regional and global landscape is too volatile, and threats too immediate, to allow reliance on any single partner or bloc. Armenia’s survival depends on relentless diversification—strengthening ties with Western democracies, maintaining pragmatic relations with regional powers like Iran and Russia, and investing in its own resilience through military reform, economic transformation, and diplomatic dexterity. In this age of lawlessness and shifting alliances, Armenia’s best defense is a flexible, sovereign foreign policy rooted in national interest—not ideological loyalty. Only by mastering the art of balance can Armenia navigate the storm and secure its place in the world.

And yet, the West remains the destination of Armenia’s heart. Should Europe and the democratic world one day find the clarity and courage to offer real protection to those who share their values, Armenia may still complete the journey — anchoring itself, at last, in the European community it has long aspired to join.

David Akopyan worked for 26 years for the United Nations in 15 countries including Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria, holding leadership positions as UN Development Program deputy director, country director and resident representative

 

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30.05.2025 07:05