Ceasefire Between Iran and Israel: End of War or Calm Before the Storm?

    After nearly two weeks of intense fighting between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel, the two sides have agreed to a ceasefire. The announcement was officially made on June 23 by U.S. President Donald Trump.

    "Congratulations to the whole world, the time for peace has come!" — proclaimed the American leader.

    The 12-day conflict marked the culmination of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, including strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, mass rocket and drone attacks, assaults on U.S. bases in the region, and civilian casualties on both sides.

    Israel accused Iran of supplying weapons to militants in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, as well as pursuing the development of nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, stated that its military actions were a response to Israeli provocations and interference in regional affairs.

    Trump called the agreement a "huge diplomatic victory" and "the beginning of a new era in the Middle East."

    However, despite the announcement of a ceasefire, new attacks were reported just hours after the declarations of peace:

    - In Be'er Sheva, at least four people were killed in a rocket strike;

    - Israel launched strikes on targets in central Iran;

    - Both sides accused each other of violating the agreement.

    President Trump admitted in a furious post:

    "Iran violated the ceasefire. But so did Israel. I'm not happy about it."

    The ceasefire was met with cautious optimism:

    - Qatar played a key mediating role;

    - Russia called for adherence to the agreement and stated its "clear stance against war";

    - The EU, China, and Turkey expressed support for peace but voiced concerns over the lack of verification mechanisms.

    Many analysts believe that the agreement, announced hastily and without formal signatures, remains extremely fragile.

    The parties have not announced the creation of monitoring mechanisms, have not clarified the status of Iran’s nuclear program, nor addressed the fate of attacks on U.S. bases.

    Without clear steps toward de-escalation, a renewed outbreak of violence is only a matter of time. The risk of spontaneous attacks and provocations remains high. The involvement of international observers (possibly from the UN or OSCE), the resumption of nuclear negotiations, and a strengthened role for Qatar and China as mediators are all possible next steps.

    Thus, the ceasefire between Iran and Israel is not the end of the conflict — but merely a pause. As long as rockets remain in the skies and public statements are filled with mutual accusations, true stability in the Middle East remains elusive. Still, even a temporary ceasefire is an opportunity. The only question is whether it will be seized in time.


    #ISRAEL
    #IRAN

    24.06.2025 03:36