Russia and Belarus have begun the large-scale joint military exercise “Zapad-2025,” near NATO borders, just two days after Poland shot down Russian drones that had crossed into its airspace.

According to the Ministry of Defense, during the first phase of the maneuvers, troops will rehearse repelling an attack on the territory of Russia and Belarus – the Union State. The second phase of the drills aims at restoring territorial integrity and “destroying the enemy”, with the involvement of coalition forces from allied states.

The exercises are being conducted at training grounds in Russia and Belarus, close to the borders with Poland and the Baltic states – Lithuania and Latvia. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the Russian leadership stated that the event had been planned in advance and is not directly related to the recent drone incident. In response, NATO countries have voiced concern over the growing military activity on the border. Poland, in particular, temporarily closed part of its border with Belarus during the exercises.

Belarusian military officials noted that the drills would take place at a “significant distance” from the borders with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine. The arsenal involved includes drones, electronic warfare systems, and artificial intelligence elements, including tools to support command and decision-making.

The “Zapad-2025” drills are not mere routine exercises: their launch immediately after the drone incursion into Polish airspace is perceived as a symbolic response by Moscow and Minsk. Even if it is officially stated that the planning began earlier, the timing and the location – NATO’s borders – amplify the sense of threat, serving as both political and psychological signaling.

The drone incident and the subsequent measures, including border closures and military-diplomatic responses, further erode trust between Russia/Belarus and NATO countries. This could aggravate existing defense tensions, strain cooperation, and raise military readiness along the borders.

It is also noted that the exercises will involve drones, electronic warfare, and artificial intelligence for decision-making support. This reflects a broader trend: wars and conflicts increasingly depend not only on quantitative forces – armored vehicles and troops – but also on technology, intelligence, and information warfare. For Russia and Belarus, this is a way to demonstrate readiness for modern challenges.

Likely responses may include intensified surveillance and reconnaissance missions along the borders, reinforcement of air defenses, and more frequent joint drills in NATO member states – especially in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Diplomatic protests and efforts to coordinate allies through NATO and the EU are also expected. All of this risks fueling an escalation cycle, with each side reacting to the other’s moves.

For Lukashenko, participating in such significant exercises consolidates his role as Moscow’s ally, which is crucial given sanctions, external pressure, and the need to demonstrate national significance. For Russia, it is a way to show it still holds initiative on security matters despite international isolation and challenges.

Exercises near NATO borders, particularly when dangerous incidents occur in parallel (such as drone incursions), carry the risk of misinterpretation and overreaction by NATO’s defensive forces. A single miscalculation or unfortunate maneuver could be perceived as aggression and provoke a retaliatory step.

#RUSSIA

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17.09.2025 07:51