The 44-day war in Karabakh in the autumn of 2020 became a turning point for Armenia. In just six weeks of fighting, the country lost more than four thousand servicemen and lost control of strategic territories. The main lesson of the conflict was the technological superiority of the adversary – Azerbaijani and Turkish drones dominated the air, while Armenian air defense proved ineffective.

Armenia continues to live in a state of permanent military readiness, where a new round of violence can erupt at any moment. The 2020 war was not the last test. Since then, Azerbaijan has repeatedly carried out deadly attacks on Armenian positions. The most recent incident occurred less than two years ago – on 13 February 2024, when Azerbaijani forces fired on Armenian positions near the village of Nerkin Hand in Syunik Province for four hours. As a result, Armenia lost four servicemen killed and one wounded.

In the five years since the large-scale war, Armenia has launched significant military reforms: purchasing modern weapons from new partners, developing its own defense industry, professionalizing the army, and transitioning to NATO standards. However, serious problems remain: a mobilization crisis and insufficient funding.

According to Armenia’s defense minister, the new doctrine prioritizes quality over quantity. Instead of a mass army, Armenia is building a professional corps of highly trained servicemen capable of operating in modern warfare—where the enemy sees you through a drone, and decisions must be made within minutes.

Air Defense and Counter-Drone Warfare

This area has become Armenia’s top priority. While in 2020 the Armenian army had almost no tools to counter Azerbaijani drones, the situation is gradually changing.

“The draft state budget for 2026 allocates 563.1 billion drams for defense, 59.3% of which will go to capital expenditures”, said Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

A significant portion of these funds goes toward anti-drone systems and the modernization of air defense.

The Armament Dilemma: The Collapse of Russia’s Monopoly

Armenia faces a difficult choice regarding arms procurement  – but this choice was not always free. Between 2010 and 2019, 94% of all weapons delivered to Armenia were of Russian origin. During this period, Yerevan paid Moscow around $5 billion for S-300 systems, “Tor” air defense systems, “Iskander” ballistic missiles, and Su-30 fighter jets.

However, after the 2020 war, the situation changed dramatically. Armenia paid Russia $400 million for weapons under existing contracts but never received them. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly announced this in November 2023.

The French Alternative: From Words to Action

Amid this crisis, Armenia pivoted toward the West, and especially toward France. In October 2023, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu signed the first-ever arms supply agreement with Armenia – a historic milestone, marking the first military contract with a NATO member state.

According to a report submitted to the French parliament, Armenia signed contracts with France worth more than €274 million in 2023–2024 for the supply of “Ground Master 200” radars, “Mistral” MANPADS, “Bastion” armored vehicles, and “CAESAR” self-propelled howitzers.

Lecornu also stated that France is ready to provide short-, medium-, and long-range air defense systems if needed:

“We can provide Armenia with air defense systems capable of protecting its airspace at various distances”, the minister said.

In 2022–2023, Armenia also signed defense contracts worth more than $1.5 billion with India – a turning point in bilateral military-technical cooperation. This includes the Pinaka MLRS, ATAGS artillery systems, Akash-1S and MRASM air defense systems, ZADS anti-drone systems, and Swathi radars.

Developing Armenia’s Own Drone Capability

Armenia’s drone industry is showing significant progress. The sector became a national priority after the lessons of 2020. In its most advanced configuration, the X-55 UAV can stay airborne for six hours, cruise at 130 km/h, and operate optimally at 2 km altitude. These may not be revolutionary systems, but they are domestically produced by Armenian engineers.

MP Armen Khachatryan, a member of the Defense Committee, highlights the scale of the national program:

“In 2023, we placed orders worth half a billion dollars with our military manufacturers. Before 2022, we practically had no defense industry. In three years, we have made unprecedented progress”, he said.

Armenia even plans to export its own systems – a goal that seemed unthinkable just a few years ago.

Personnel Reform: Western Standards and Reality

New weapons require properly trained personnel.

“We are talking about readiness for modern smart warfare. This also includes command-and-control capabilities and automated systems. All of this is now being integrated into the army”, said Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

In December 2024, the minister identified key priorities in Armenian-American defense cooperation: military education, combat training, participation in peacekeeping missions, the development of professional NCOs and instructors, and the creation of new training capabilities.

The transition to a sergeant-based structure is a key reform. Armenia is replacing the Soviet system with a professional NCO corps.

“This means that during its implementation, all professional servicemen who demonstrate the necessary skills will be considered for roles up to staff sergeants, who will formulate and assign tasks alongside officers”, the minister explained.

However, some experts argue that Armenia has lost precious time.

Military expert Karen Hovhannisyan believes the government spent too much time talking about peace while neglecting the priority of improving frontline positions:

“You can talk about peace only if Armenia is confidently preparing for war”, he said.

Systemic Problems in the Army

Not all analysts share the government’s optimism. Military expert Eduard Arakelyan of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security argues that Armenia’s core challenges cannot be solved through arms purchases alone.

“The Armenian army’s main problems are systemic, and weapons procurement does not address them. The top priority should be structural reforms. Nepotism and low discipline persist within the armed forces”, Arakelyan stated.

In 2024, 40 servicemen died in Armenia’s armed forces, 27 of them in circumstances related to service. In late October, Defense Minister Papikyan stated that in 2025 mortality rates had significantly decreased:

“As of the end of the current year, 5 deaths related to service have been recorded. Two servicemen died from illness, one from electric shock, one from lightning, and one committed suicide”, he said.

Balance of Power: Defense Budgets

When comparing Armenia and Azerbaijan, the numbers speak for themselves. In December 2024, Azerbaijan’s president announced a record $5 billion defense budget for 2025. By contrast, Armenia’s defense budget for 2025 is $1.7 billion, equal to 6% of GDP.

But even this does not tell the whole story. From 2021 to 2023, Azerbaijan spent around $9 billion on defense – not counting massive expenditures in 2024. In three years, Azerbaijan spent more on its military than half of Armenia’s entire GDP.

In 2024 alone, Azerbaijan purchased $2.2 billion in weapons, becoming the 16th largest arms importer globally. While Armenia diversified its suppliers after 2020, Azerbaijan has spent a decade building its army on Turkish and Israeli technologies.

The 2020 war began with waves of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 strike drones and Israeli Harop loitering munitions. The TB2 became the symbol of Azerbaijan’s victory, systematically destroying Armenian equipment, including air defense systems.

In 2024, reports indicated that Azerbaijan opened a training center and hangar for the new Turkish Akinci heavy drone – a major leap beyond the TB2.

In April 2023, Azerbaijan signed a memorandum to produce drones domestically with Turkey’s Baykar, signaling a shift from procurement to local production.

Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces Parade on 8 November 2025 showcased the latest Israeli technologies, including Harop, Harpy, Hero-120, and Sky Striker loitering munitions.

The exact number of Harop drones in Azerbaijan’s inventory is unknown, but a single launcher can carry up to 20 such munitions, each containing 25 kg of explosives and capable of patrolling for hours – especially effective against radar systems.

Israeli supplies go far beyond drones. In March 2024, Azerbaijan acquired the SkyDew aerostat – an early-warning system capable of tracking up to 500 targets over a distance of more than 250 km.

Azerbaijan also purchases satellite reconnaissance systems from Israel, enabling real-time observation and intelligence collection, creating an integrated space-to-ground surveillance network.

According to the Pakistani “Air Operation Syndicate”, Azerbaijan will purchase JF-17C Block III fighter jets from Pakistan for $1.6 billion. These aircraft, equipped with modern radars and weapons, are intended to replace the country’s Russian MiG-29s.

In June 2023, Azerbaijan signed an agreement to purchase C-27J Spartan military transport aircraft from Italy’s Leonardo.

Belarus also provides extensive equipment. In September 2022, a Belarusian representative stated that the country supplies almost its entire range of defense products to Azerbaijan: fire-control systems, artillery equipment, air defense systems, and electronic security systems.

Armenia’s Response: Quality Over Quantity

Armenia is attempting to develop an asymmetric response to Azerbaijan’s superiority. Its strategy rests on three principles:

1. Diversifying suppliers – ending dependence on a single country;
2. Procuring high-technology systems – French CAESARs, Indian Pinaka MLRS, air defense systems;
3. Developing domestic production – especially UAVs and loitering munitions.

MP Armen Khachatryan voiced an ambitious assessment:
“In recent years, Armenia has purchased an unprecedented amount of weapons”.

But even with these efforts, the gap remains enormous.

“Today the army is more combat-ready than 2–3 years ago, but it is too early to say we have a guaranteed ability to withstand a large-scale war with Azerbaijan. A huge amount of work still lies ahead. But we now certainly have more modern weapons and ammunition than in 2020. The CAESAR has performed exceptionally well in Ukraine. The Azerbaijani army has nothing comparable”, said military analyst Leonid Nersisyan of APRI Armenia.

Armenia’s GDP is around $18 billion. About 8% of the budget is spent on defense – an extremely high share for a small state. There is money, but not unlimited money. Each decision – whether to buy an air-defense system, build barracks, modernize communications, or train personnel – comes at the expense of something else.

For 2026, Armenia’s defense budget will be around $1.5 billion, approximately $265 million (or 15%) less than the current year. Many experts consider this reduction unacceptable, given Azerbaijan’s increasing defense spending.

Nersisyan warns: “At this stage, we cannot afford to cut the budget. The army is undergoing major transformation – both in reforms and procurement. Spending must remain high for at least several more years”.

Armenia cannot compete with Azerbaijan in the number of tanks or size of the army. But it can compete in quality, mobility, and technology.

Thus, Armenia is actively modernizing its armed forces – introducing new weapons systems, strengthening professional personnel, improving service conditions, and developing internal defense capabilities. However, these efforts face significant challenges, including a mobilization crisis, discipline and cultural issues within the army, limited financial resources, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Journalist,

Marine Kharatyan

#ARMENIA

11.12.2025 11:03