Abstract

The South Caucasus has re-emerged as a strategically contested geopolitical space amid intensifying great power competition. High-level diplomatic engagement by senior United States officials — most recently Vice President J.D. Vance’s 2026 visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan — signals renewed American interest in shaping regional security, economic connectivity, and political development. This article analyzes the geopolitical implications of U.S. engagement for Russian and Chinese regional aspirations. It argues that such engagement functions strategically to counterbalance Russia’s historical influence and constrain China’s expanding geo-economic footprint, while simultaneously advancing U.S. interests in energy diversification and conflict management. However, the agency of Armenia and Azerbaijan — manifested through multi-vector foreign policies — complicates binary narratives of great power competition. The article situates recent diplomatic developments within theoretical frameworks of strategic competition and regional balancing, drawing on official statements, policy documents, and emerging infrastructure initiatives.

Introduction

The South Caucasus — comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — occupies a pivotal position at the crossroads of Europe, Russia, the Middle East, and Asia. Despite periods of relative neglect in U.S. foreign policy, recent high-level engagements exemplified by Vice President J.D. Vance’s February 2026 trip to Yerevan and Baku illustrate a strategic recalibration of American interests in the region. Vance’s visit — the first by a sitting U.S. vice president to Armenia and Azerbaijan in over a decade — held symbolic weight and tangible diplomatic outcomes, including civil nuclear cooperation agreements and strategic partnership frameworks addressing energy, security, and connectivity.

This article examines how such high-level engagement intersects with the strategic ambitions of Russia and China in the South Caucasus. It argues that the U.S. seeks to shape regional order through a combination of diplomatic signaling, institutional engagement, and economic initiatives that compete with Russian security dominance and China’s expanding economic footprint. However, regional states exercise agency in navigating these pressures, employing multi-vector policies that leverage external competition for their own strategic advantage.

Theoretical Framework

This analysis draws on neorealist and strategic competition frameworks, which posit that major powers seek influence over regions of strategic value through security commitments, economic leverage, and diplomatic engagement. Key concepts include balance of power, spheres of influence, and geo-economic statecraft. At the same time, elements of complex interdependence theory account for the role of economic connectivity and infrastructure diplomacy — particularly relevant to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and U.S. support for alternative corridors.

In this blended framework, the South Caucasus emerges not as a passive arena of power politics, but as an active space where external ambitions interact with regional priorities and agency.

Russia’s Enduring but Evolving Influence

Russia’s historical dominance in the South Caucasus has rested on military alliances, security deployments, and institutional ties, especially with Armenia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Moscow’s peacekeeping role after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts and its integration within Eurasian economic structures traditionally buttressed its influence.

However, recent dynamics have strained this dominance. Russia’s strategic overextension — exacerbated by its confrontation with the West over Ukraine — has weakened perceptions of Moscow as an indispensable security partner. Armenia’s cautious distancing from CSTO mechanisms and inquiries into alternative energy partners signal shifts in alignment. Simultaneously, Russia continues to maintain leverage through trade, military cooperation, and historical ties, underscoring that its influence is constrained rather than displaced.

Moscow’s reaffirmation of its intent to deepen ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan following the U.S. visit reflects this competitive posture. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized Russia’s ongoing economic and cultural relations while highlighting its competitive position in supplying nuclear technology — a clear response to U.S. initiatives in Armenia’s civil nuclear sector.

China’s Geo-Economic Engagement

China’s involvement in the South Caucasus has expanded through the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasizing infrastructure, trade, and connectivity investments. Unlike Russia’s security-centric engagement, China’s footprint is largely economic, focused on integrating the region into Eurasian supply chains and transit corridors. Scholars note that Beijing’s policy leverages soft power, trade expansion, and infrastructure financing to deepen ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

The significance of the South Caucasus to China stems from the “Middle Corridor” — a trade and logistics route linking China to Europe via Central Asia and the Caspian Sea. This corridor aligns with Chinese economic priorities by offering an alternative to northern routes through Russia. While U.S. engagement does not directly confront China militarily, competing infrastructure visions — such as the U.S.-promoted Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)—introduce alternative connectivity frameworks that could dilute Chinese leverage over regional economic networks.

Empirical Evidence: The 2026 U.S. Vice Presidential Visit

Historic Significance and Strategic Agreements

Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit in February 2026 marked a historic milestone: it was the first time a sitting U.S. vice president had visited Armenia and one of the most consequential high-level engagements in the region in years. In Yerevan, Vance and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan formalized a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, enabling U.S. civil nuclear technology exports, potentially replacing Armenia’s reliance on Russian and Iranian energy infrastructure. The agreement was lauded by Pashinyan as opening “a new chapter in the deepening energy partnership”.

In Baku, Vance signed a strategic partnership with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, focusing on economic, security, energy, and technology cooperation. This included plans for patrol boats and enhanced collaboration on critical minerals and transit infrastructure — elements that reinforce U.S. presence in regional logistics and security frameworks.

Collectively, these engagements reflect a multifaceted approach to embedding U.S. strategic interests through direct partnership rather than indirect influence.

The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity 

A central theme of the visit was the promotion of the TRIPP initiative, a proposed transport corridor linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia. U.S. officials framed TRIPP as a confidence-building measure following the peace agreement brokered at the White House in August 2025, aimed at reopening longstanding transport barriers and integrating the South Caucasus into broader East-West trade routes.

The initiative showcases how U.S. policy seeks to combine peacebuilding with economic incentives. By supporting connectivity that bypasses Russian and Iranian territory, TRIPP aligns with broader U.S. interests in diversifying supply chains and reducing reliance on adversarial transit networks.

Official Framing and Strategic Messaging

The U.S. State Department publicly stated that the visit would “advance President Donald Trump’s peace efforts and promote the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” underscoring a strategic continuity between diplomatic outreach and infrastructure diplomacy.

Simultaneously, local political responses highlighted the strategic balancing act inherent in regional foreign policy. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan emphasized that engagement with the U.S. did not constitute hostility toward Russia, asserting Armenia’s sovereign right to pursue diverse partnerships.

U.S. Policy Objectives in the South Caucasus

Energy Security and Market Diversification

The civil nuclear agreement and energy cooperation efforts reflect a broader U.S. interest in diversifying energy partnerships in a region long dominated by Russian and Iranian energy provision. Supporting Armenia’s energy diversification reduces Moscow’s leverage and creates economic interdependence with Western energy and technology providers.

Similarly, Azerbaijan’s role as a major gas supplier to European markets enhances its strategic importance to U.S. allies seeking alternatives to Russian energy. The strategic partnership underscores this alignment, positioning Azerbaijan as a reliable partner in global energy security dialogues.

Balancing Russia and China: Strategic Implications

Constraining Russian Dominance

U.S. diplomatic engagement presents a strategic challenge to Russia’s historical claim to a privileged sphere of influence. By deepening bilateral cooperation with Armenia and Azerbaijan, Washington signals that regional order will not be monopolized by Moscow. However, Russia’s continued economic ties, cultural links, and participation in infrastructure and energy sectors mean that it remains a central actor — even as its relative dominance wanes.

Managing China’s Economic Footprint

While China’s approach is largely economic, its expanding influence through the BRI and regional trade infrastructure introduces long-term strategic considerations. U.S. promotion of alternative corridors such as TRIPP and emphasis on technology partnerships introduce competitive choices for regional states. These choices may reduce the attractiveness of overdependence on Chinese networks while offering diversified opportunities tied to Western markets.

Regional Agency and Multi-Vector Policies

Armenia and Azerbaijan exemplify multi-vector foreign policies aimed at maximizing autonomy and strategic flexibility. Both states seek to balance relations with external powers to accrue economic benefits, security guarantees, and diplomatic leverage. Armenia’s engagement with the U.S. and European partners complements its historical security ties with Russia, while Azerbaijan leverages its energy exports and strategic location to maintain flexibility among great power interests. This agency challenges deterministic models of great power dominance, illustrating the capacity of regional actors to shape the geopolitical environment.

Conclusion

The South Caucasus has transitioned from a peripheral geopolitical space to a contested arena of strategic competition. High-level U.S. diplomatic engagement — epitomized by Vice President Vance’s 2026 visit — demonstrates American intentions to shape regional order through a blend of security cooperation, economic integration, and infrastructure diplomacy. These efforts aim to counterbalance Russian influence and constrain China’s economic ambitions, while reinforcing U.S. interests in peacebuilding, energy diversification, and regional stability.

However, the region’s evolving politics reflect complexity: Russia retains enduring influence, China continues to expand its economic footprint, and Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate these pressures with strategic agency. The South Caucasus thus exemplifies a dynamic and competitive regional order where overlapping interests and multifaceted engagement strategies intersect.

Researcher and consultant,
Nicholas Georgiou 

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18.02.2026 12:08