Just a few years ago, India barely featured as a notable military actor in the South Caucasus, while Armenia remained largely dependent on Russian military supplies. Today, the situation has changed.

The escalation of tensions around Iran has already led to a sharp increase in insurance and operational costs in maritime logistics. As a result, alternative land routes — including those passing through the South Caucasus — are becoming increasingly attractive. Under these conditions, New Delhi is deliberately developing its own network of transit corridors, which have long since ceased to be purely commercial and are acquiring an increasingly pronounced military-strategic dimension.

At the core of this strategy is the creation of reliable overland routes between the Indian Ocean and Europe, bypassing the most vulnerable maritime pathways. A central role is assigned to the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Iran’s Chabahar Port.

Infrastructure: Ambitions and Reality

Chabahar Port remains a key element of India’s logistics in the region. Thanks to a ten-year contract and significant investments, India continues to operate the Shahid Beheshti commercial terminal and is steadily increasing its capacity. From there, cargo moves across Iranian territory to the Armenian border and then through the Syunik region — within the framework of Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative — potentially onward to Georgian ports on the Black Sea, which is gaining additional importance amid growing pressure on maritime routes.

However, the infrastructure is still far from complete. The Chabahar–Zahedan railway section continues to face chronic delays, and the overland route through Iran and the South Caucasus operates at limited capacity. Full integration of the INSTC with the “Crossroads of Peace” remains more of a strategic objective than a fully operational transport artery.

Actors and Alignment of Interests

India is the principal architect of the project. Seeking to strengthen its presence in Eurasia and expand military exports, New Delhi is consistently linking infrastructure development with military-technical cooperation with Armenia — from supplies of Pinaka multiple launch rocket systems and Akash air defense systems to discussions of potential cooperation in the aviation sector.

Armenia views engagement with India as a key element in diversifying its foreign relations and reducing its traditional dependence on Russia. For Yerevan, a stable corridor through Iran is not only an economic opportunity but also a matter of operational rear support.

Iran remains an indispensable yet most vulnerable link in the entire chain. Despite internal economic difficulties and sanctions pressure, Tehran continues to provide Armenia with access to the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas.

Azerbaijan and Turkey are not involved in this route and perceive Indian-Armenian initiatives as potential competition to the Middle Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, TITR). Georgia retains the status of a potential transit hub; however, at this stage, its role in military logistics remains minimal.

Russia continues to show interest in the western route of the INSTC, but its influence is gradually weakening as Armenia diversifies its partnerships. China is observing developments with cautious restraint.

Military-Strategic Significance

Deliveries are generally multimodal: maritime transport to Iranian ports is combined with subsequent overland transit, while the most sensitive components may be delivered by air. It is in this military-logistical dimension that the project becomes particularly significant. For now, the main channel runs through Iran, creating obvious vulnerabilities, especially amid current regional escalation. Air transport is used for the most valuable and urgent cargo, but its high cost prevents it from becoming the primary delivery method.

Thus, the Caucasian segment of the INSTC has not yet become a fully developed military logistics hub but is gradually acquiring increasing strategic importance as one of the alternative supply routes.

Risks and Constraints

The current configuration entails several significant weaknesses. The main one is excessive dependence on a single route. Any serious internal disruptions in Iran or further tightening of international sanctions could significantly slow down — or, in the worst case, temporarily halt — supplies.

This is compounded by infrastructure limitations: underdeveloped road and rail networks, as well as the political sensitivity of the route passing through the Syunik region. Escalation around Iran further amplifies these risks, affecting the predictability and cost of logistics chains. As Georgian expert Zurab Garakanidze notes, the development of alternative transport corridors in the South Caucasus brings not only economic opportunities but also new risks for transport and communication security in the region. In this context, competition among various routes increases the importance of control over key transit nodes.

Outlook

In the short term, the Iranian corridor is likely to remain the primary channel. In the medium term, Armenia will likely seek to strengthen logistics links with Georgia, although military transit through it remains limited for now. In the long term, a more diversified multi-route system may emerge, including both the strengthening of the Black Sea direction and the expansion of the air component during periods of crisis. However, this will require significant investment and, more importantly, sustained regional stability.

Conclusion

India’s logistics routes in the South Caucasus reflect a broader global trend: in an era of growing instability in traditional maritime routes, overland corridors through the Caucasus are gradually gaining strategic value. While the project is still in its formative stage, its military-logistical potential is already evident. The key question is whether India will be able to transform the current relatively narrow and vulnerable chain into a truly reliable and multi-channel network capable of withstanding geopolitical shocks.

 

Military Analyst,
Nino Samadashvili

#ARMENIA

#INDIA

16.04.2026 09:18