Russia is in deep trouble. This is so obvious that even the state media no longer tries to hide it. The crisis is manifold: there is one on the battlefield and another at home, where until very recently there were no dramatic war-related happenings. Now, however, the entire state has submitted itself to one god: the almighty gasoline. All hopes, dreams, wishes, prayers, and whispers of the ordinary Russians are addressed to the smelly liquid and its magic ability to make things, and especially cars, move. There is also a deep-rooted fear that no one dares to talk about openly: if the fuel crisis continues, all prices will rise and the cost of living will become unbearable. But the worst is yet to come: the agricultural season will be ruined simply because there won’t be enough diesel fuel freely available on the market, and a considerable amount of the produce could be lost. This in turn will force the Russian government to import some basic foods in order to solve the shortages, lower the prices, and reduce the pressure on the domestic market.

Everything mentioned above, however, are just visible signs of the looming crisis; there are also some invisible ones that drain the souls of the citizens of the Russian Federation on a daily basis: the severe psychological pressure, the widespread uncertainty, the anxiety, the pessimistic views on the individual and common future, the stress caused by the repeated Ukrainian drone attacks, and many other war-related fears that leave deep but invisible scars in the souls of millions. The surveys and random street interviews clearly reveal that most Russians still crave peace and sincerely care about the future of their homeland. It is also apparent that they feel powerless to change anything, and this fact depresses them even further. However, Vladimir Putin, the only person that could make the big change and stop this whole madness, continues to turn his deaf ear to the cries of his countrymen. He acts and behaves as an emperor who sees himself as a god-chosen leader who knows how to rule, judge, and decide. Time and again he chooses war instead of peace, driven by the belief that this is the only road ahead of his country. Where will this stubbornness bring Russia in the end? What are the possible scenarios? Let’s find out below.

 

Long-term plans and ambitions

In a recent interview, Putin declared that the objective of the so-called Special Military Operation is not only to “liberate” the four Ukrainian regions (Oblasts) already officially annexed in 2022 (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya), but also to “free” the rest of the so-called Novorossiya, which also includes four more Oblasts, namely Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv. This is insane, because save for Luhansk Oblast, all three other annexed regions are still not fully occupied, and it may take the Russians years and even decades to accomplish that. Speaking of the other four oblasts, they are still barely touched by war, and there are no signs that this situation will change in the immediate future. It is nearly impossible to say whether Putin himself sincerely believes that this can be done either by military means or due to diplomatic pressure or if his claim was made just to convince the deeply concerned Russian society that the state and the army are still on a winning track. The simple math shows that the “liberation of Novorossiya” is a mission impossible for the Russian army — so far it has lost nearly 1.5 million men killed, wounded, sick, and missing without being able to completely occupy even Donbas. How many men have yet to be sacrificed and how many years have yet to be wasted to “incorporate forever” the other four oblasts into “Mother Russia”?

 

The peace proposals

Several days ago, Zelensky revealed in an interview that he had proposed to Putin at least three different schemes that could be used as building blocks for peace talks: 1) to stop the fighting and declare a ceasefire along the current frontline; 2) to limit the fighting only to the four contested oblasts, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya; 3) to impose a moratorium on aerial strikes on the civilian infrastructure and especially on the energy facilities. So far he has received no reply from his mighty opponent, and I’m sure he never will. Putin is a peacemaker in words only; he doesn’t want negotiations on equal terms; he wants a submission and even a capitulation from Ukraine. If he stops the war now, he won’t be able to declare any sort of victory; this is clear to everyone in Russia. Then the people all over the country will ask the most important question much more frequently: “What was this all about?” That’s why the Kremlin tyrant will keep the war going, driven by illusions that Ukraine somehow will fall in the end.

 

Propaganda and lies

The Russian rulers, be they tsars, emperors, communist leaders, or presidents, always used nation-centric propaganda, combined with lies and fear-mongering, to control the population. Putin is no exception. Since the war in Ukraine is going nowhere, the Kremlin propaganda machine will increase even further the mental pressure on the ordinary Russians. No doubt, the brainwashing will go along several parallel lines:

1) “We are winning” – all types of suggestions and visual evidence will be put to use to convince the Z-community that everything is going according to plan and that the mighty Russian army is taking one village after another;

2) “We are fighting not only against Ukraine, but also against the entire Western world” - this old slogan will be reheated repeatedly to explain all present and future difficulties and troubles that Russia faces on and off the battlefield;

3) “There is no fuel crisis, just some logistical problems" – this one will be used to explain the long queues at the gas stations;

4) “All drones were shot down; the damage was caused by some debris” – the Russian authorities will keep using this blatant lie to downplay the effectiveness of the Ukrainian drones and to justify the failures of their own air defense;

5) “We hit only military-related targets" – this one is used to justify the barbaric campaigns against the Ukrainian cities, and the Russian propaganda machine will keep using it while simultaneously trying to present the precise strikes of the Ukrainians on factories and refineries as aerial terror on defenseless civilians.

 

The aerial strikes

No changes should be expected, but the number of drones and long-range missiles used by both sides will rise, given the fact that modern warfare is increasingly defined by them. Currently the Russians launch no less than 7,000 flying munitions per month, but the reputable sources claim that their plans call for increasing the monthly output to about 33,000. The Ukrainians' plans and intentions are similar, which means that we have yet to see really devastating aerial strikes and campaigns.

 

The blockade of Crimea

Crimea, Putin’s crown jewel, is technically under siege. It may not be fully blocked yet by the AFU (Ukrainian Armed Forces), but nowadays it is almost impossible to bring large amounts of supplies there on a regular basis. The Ukrainian drone units already have cut off most of the highways leading to the peninsula from the north, and now their efforts are focused on the systematic destruction of all valuable targets on the peninsula, be they of strictly military significance or of dual-purpose. There is simply no fuel for sale, but there are also blackouts because most of the power stations and substations are already out of order. It is not difficult to predict that serious troubles with running water and even with the main foodstuffs are yet to be expected. The AFU are equally successful in eliminating strictly military targets, many of which were like sitting ducks. During the last month the AFU kill score rose even further by including several air defense systems, drone depots, and up to seven military aircraft on the bases at Saki and Gvardeyskoye. The objective of the blockade imposed by the AFU is multi-fold: to cripple the potential of one of the main Russian military and logistical bases in the area, to create and maintain a zone of permanent unrest in the immediate rear of Putin’s army, and to force a considerable number of settlers and colonists who already have chosen Crimea as their home and business venture to leave the peninsula for good. There is no doubt that all this will be achieved by repeated drone raids on the military targets and suffocating the public services, therefore making life on the peninsula literally unbearable.

 

Frontline situation

Given the stalemate that has ruled the battlefield over the last three years, it is not difficult to predict that no major breakthroughs will occur this year. It is quite possible that the Russians will finally take Kostiantynivka during the coming months, but this won’t cause the collapse of the stiff resistance of the AFU units in Donbas. The Ukrainians in turn will try to deepen their penetrations in Zaporizhzhya Oblast in an attempt to push the Russians as close as possible to the northern shores of the Sea of Azov. It is still too early to say whether the logistical difficulties they are experiencing in the area in question will play in favor of the AFU. Some leading experts and analysts even dared to predict a large-scale Ukrainian landing operation either in Crimea or in the Kinburn Spit, the narrow sandy peninsula situated not far from Kherson, but I seriously doubt that the AFU, in their present condition, have sufficient resources needed for the accomplishment of such ambitious undertakings. Furthermore, both Zelensky and the commander-in-chief, Syrsky, in their recent public statements insisted that the strategy followed by Ukraine is quite simple and straightforward — to exhaust Russia and, by doing so, to bring Putin to the negotiation table.

 

Military expert

Kamen NEVENKIN

#ANALYSIS

#RUSSIA

#UKRAINE

07.07.2026 08:23