A new, less obvious pressure point has come into focus in the global economy — strikes on industrial infrastructure, particularly fertilizer production in Russia. According to Russian businessman Andrey Melnichenko, drone attacks in recent months have had a noticeable impact on the nitrogen fertilizer sector, one of the most critical for global agriculture. In his assessment, this is no longer about isolated incidents, but rather a factor that is beginning to systematically affect production chains and investment plans.

Melnichenko noted that major chemical enterprises have come under attack, including the Dorogobuzh plant, which is part of the EuroChem group. Temporary shutdowns at such facilities can affect several percent of national nitrogen fertilizer output. A key feature of the industry is that even short-term disruptions have delayed consequences: restoring technological processes takes time, and supply interruptions can affect deliveries in the following months, especially during the planting season.

Russia remains one of the largest players in the global fertilizer market, accounting for a significant share of nitrogen-based product supplies, including ammonia and urea. Its main export markets include countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa, where agriculture is heavily dependent on imports. As a result, any production constraints within the country quickly translate into rising global prices and increased pressure on agricultural economies, particularly in developing regions.

Additional complexity stems from the industry’s high energy intensity. Nitrogen fertilizer production is directly tied to natural gas prices, which serve as a key input. Amid geopolitical tensions, sanctions pressure, and logistical disruptions, this dependency increases the sector’s vulnerability. Even when demand remains strong, producers must balance costs, infrastructure security, and the risk of further attacks.

Analysts also point to a shift in the nature of risks. While price volatility and trade restrictions were previously the main challenges for the sector, the physical security of production facilities has now moved to the forefront. This requires additional investment in infrastructure protection, modernization of security systems, and diversification of production sites, which could increase production costs in the long term.

The market is already reacting: nitrogen fertilizer prices are gradually rising, and efforts are underway to redirect supply flows. Some countries are seeking to expand domestic production, but quick solutions are limited — building new capacity takes years and requires significant investment. In the short term, this increases dependence on existing suppliers, including Russia.

Experts emphasize that the consequences extend beyond the industrial sector. Higher fertilizer costs directly affect agricultural production costs and, consequently, food prices. Amid existing inflationary pressures, this could become an additional source of instability in global markets and heighten food security risks in vulnerable regions.

 

Thus, strikes on fertilizer infrastructure are shaping a new reality for the global agricultural sector. For Russia, this means the need to adapt the industry to heightened risks, while for the global market it signals growing uncertainty and a gradual restructuring of supply chains. In the coming months, a key factor will be not only the dynamics of the conflict but also the sector’s ability to respond quickly to new challenges while maintaining stable supplies in a segment critical to the global economy.

#RUSSIA

18.04.2026 06:00