One of the main goals of wartime propaganda is to convince both friends and foes that the war is being won and that far greater capabilities remain in reserve. And this is where the similarities between Russia's and Ukraine's propaganda apparatus end – while Kyiv prefers to stick to easy-to-prove facts, Moscow spreads empty threats and resorts to violent rhetoric. We have heard many threats recently, especially after the series of successful Ukrainian drone strikes on key facilities in St Petersburg and Moscow, but this is the typical style of the Kremlin since the times of the tsars and emperors, and no one pays special attention to it anymore. We have all simply gotten used to it.

 

Speaking of propaganda, it is worth mentioning how the respective media and state institutions reacted to the spectacular aerial attacks both belligerents have exchanged since the beginning of June. Among the unfortunate targets of those attacks were the historic Panorama of the Defense of Sevastopol museum (1854–1855) and the Dormition Cathedral within the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra (a UNESCO World Heritage Site), both prominent cultural and symbolic landmarks. The opposing sides accused each other of cultural terrorism and deliberate targeting, but the parallels between them end here. Because when drones and missiles hit industrial facilities and residential areas within big cities, the reaction was completely different. While the Ukrainians chose to focus on victimhood and human suffering, the Russians decided to downplay the effectiveness of their enemy, and the Kremlin media, as usual, ignored the burning oil refineries and devastated industrial facilities. Their message to the Z-community and the armchair patriots hasn't changed since the outbreak of the Special Military Operation: “We are winning…”, “Everything is in order…”, “The victory is on the horizon…”, “That was just debris, we succeeded in shooting down all of their drones…”. But the state media bluster can’t conceal any longer the gasoline rationing and the unusually long queues at gas stations all over Russia.

 

Frontline update

No significant changes occurred on the battlefield over the past fortnight despite the fact that ferocious battles continued unabated in several critical sectors. In many areas the Russians hold the initiative and attack relentlessly, but there are also places where the AFU (Ukrainian Armed Forces) are on the offensive. This brings a fragile balance to the combat zone that was absent during the previous years and currently makes the stalemate even more obvious. No significant changes in the tactics of the belligerents have been observed. Both parties still use small assault groups as their primary combat units, which rely on protected cross-country vehicles (for mobility) and on a vast variety of drones for all other needs, ranging from close air support and reconnaissance to supply and evacuation. The Ukrainians claim that, due to their superior training, equipment, and leadership, they regularly inflict far greater losses on the enemy than they sustain in return. Of course, no independent source can confirm that, and the warring parties themselves remain silent on the subject, as no casualty figures have been released so far.

The northeastern shoulder of the frontline remains more or less quiet, but the same cannot be said for the vicinity of Kupiansk, where the Russian pressure is increasing daily. Kupiansk is seldom mentioned in the mainstream media since the Ukrainians completely liberated it earlier this year, but the Russians haven’t given up their intention to retake it. Currently they attack it simultaneously from two directions: from the north, trying to infiltrate the outskirts, and from the east, where the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskil barely holds.

The focal point of the battle is still in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian attempts to approach the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the east have so far been unsuccessful, even though some forward detachments of Putin’s army have occupied positions about 15 km from Sloviansk. The AFU, and in particular the elite 3rd Corps, are hampering these efforts with sharp counterattacks on the unprotected flanks of the invaders, threatening to cut off their rear communications. They combine their counteractions with deep drone attacks on Russian logistics that stretch as far as the internationally recognized state border. The cornerstone of the Ukrainian defense in that area is the town of Lyman, which protects Sloviansk from the northeast. According to the latest news, confirmed by several sources, some Russian patrols have already infiltrated the town, but their parent units are still not capable of establishing firm positions in the residential areas.

It is the struggle for Kostiantynivka that occupies the headlines these days and continues to attract the attention of the mainstream media all over the world. With its prewar population of about 70,000, the town is a tough nut to crack, and there is no doubt that the AFU will hold it as long as there are buildings left standing suitable for setting up strongpoints. The Russians haven’t changed their original battle plan yet; they keep attacking the place simultaneously from three directions — a frontal push from the southeast combined with flanking attacks from the southwest and northeast, respectively. The frontal push aims to penetrate deeper into the residential areas, while the flanking attacks are designed to cut off the ground communications of the garrison. The invaders employ mostly infiltration tactics, trying to sneak into buildings using small assault groups usually consisting of two to three men. They are constantly supported by drones but also by artillery and fighter-bombers that launch devastating glide bombs from afar. The Russians also control the supply routes of the defenders with drones, making any movement and evacuation attempt an extremely dangerous adventure.

Until recently the fall of Kostiantynivka seemed imminent, but a couple of days ago the High Command of the AFU decided to deploy elite urban-warfare assault troops into the town. Consequently, the Russian advance has lost its momentum. According to the latest estimates, the town will not fall this summer, and the fighting for it will drag well into the autumn. It is apparent that the political and military leadership in Kyiv is not keen on giving up Kostiantynivka because its loss will bring the Russian drone operators and artillery closer to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and therefore will make the defense of the twin cities a nearly impossible undertaking.

Quite surprisingly, the small-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive in the vast flat area between Pokrovsk and Huliaipole continues with good effect. In several sectors the assault parties of the AFU have succeeded in making inroads up to 10 km deep into the thinly stretched Russian lines. Some progress has been reported also in the vicinity of Stepnohirsk, just to the south of the key city of Zaporizhzhia. These Ukrainian successes in the southern segment of the front can safely be attributed not only to skillful leadership and improved combat performance, but also to the regular drone strikes on the Russian logistic chains and supply lines.

 

The supply war and blockade of Crimea

Maybe "blockade" is not the right word when one tries to explain the current situation in Crimea, as technically the highways and the sea routes connecting the peninsula with the heartland are still not completely severed. On the other hand, the AFU are gradually and increasingly suffocating, so to speak, the military garrison and civilian population inhabiting the annexed piece of land. All of the road and railway bridges connecting the peninsula with the mainland in the north have been hit multiple times by drones and are currently out of service. The railroad traffic between Rostov and Crimea through the occupied land corridor to the north of the Sea of Azov is nearly paralyzed, and trains are running only occasionally. The supply traffic on the highways in that area has been left at the mercy of the Ukrainian drone operators, and given the large amount of video footage showing burning trucks, vans, and lorries, they are not very merciful. To make the situation worse for the occupiers, during the night of 20/21 June the AFU disrupted the ferry connection at Kerch linking the peninsula with the Caucasus. Thus, for the first time since the outbreak of the full-scale war, the regular tourist season in Crimea will be completely ruined as roughly 80% of the reservations from potential vacationers have already been canceled or withdrawn.

 

The war will continue unabated

The daily reports of the Ukrainian General Staff in Kyiv reveal an interesting fact — compared to the early stages of the war, now the AFU destroy 30 times more Russian military trucks. In other words, the average number of enemy trucks destroyed in a single day in June is comparable to the number of trucks put out of action during, let’s say, the entire month of June 2022. No army in the world can withstand such a high rate of losses in its logistics fleet. We also witness how the oil industry, the strongest asset of the Russian economy, is being obliterated day and night. This is combined with growing social unrest, depression, and even panic within Russian society.

Moreover, the EU, the G-7, NATO, and the global democratic community as a whole keep declaring their continuing support for the Ukrainian freedom cause. Thanks to that support, the striking capabilities of the AFU will grow even further. Still, Putin rejects any peace proposals and ceasefire offers. He still believes that somehow he will win in the end. In the meantime, the drone campaign of the AFU moved to the next level — on the night of 20 June, long-range drones manufactured by the Fire Point company delivered a record-breaking strike on the Tyumen Oil Refinery in Western Siberia. They had travelled over 2,000 km from the Ukrainian border. Think about that.       

Military expert
Kamen NEVENKIN

#ANALYSIS

#RUSSIA

#UKRAINE

22.06.2026 07:33