President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev signed a new Foreign Policy Concept of Kazakhstan for 2020-2030 years. The document is a framework, so it listed only general trends, trends, key areas and tasks of the state in the international arena. In consequence of this, many of the theses in the Concept - smooth and sleek, it is very common for diplomatic documents - "We are friends with everyone, for all the good and against everything bad." However, some aspects of the Concept demonstrates new approaches of Kazakhstan in international relations, and worth what would look at them more closely.

Thus, the document is divided into seven chapters, the most interesting of which are the "Analysis of the current situation", "Basic principles of foreign policy", "Aims and objectives of foreign policy", " Trends and vision of foreign policy."

In the first chapter, as a characteristic of the current situation in the world, highlights the instability and variability of the system of international relations. Indeed, the world is transformed very rapidly, and over the years constructed economic models and political systems can collapse overnight, which is very well demonstrated by the last two "black swans." The sudden outbreak of infection COVID-19 and the collapse of the agreement on oil production of OPEC +, which hit the world oil prices, clearly demonstrate that long-term forecasts can often be thrown into the furnace.

Further, it refers to "reducing the functionality of multilateral security institutions and dialogue, the low efficiency of mechanisms of preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution, the erosion of fundamental principles of international law." This aspect, in my view is including a reflection of the current rosiyskogo-Ukrainian conflict, when the existing system of conflict prevention and resolution, led by the United Nations, once again demonstrates its inefficiency. Since even members of the UN Security Council are often carriers "of realpolitik" or "political realism", declaring the inviolability of international law, but in fact using the law of force in international relations. This trend, in my opinion is also a challenge for Kazakhstan, which geopolitically sandwiched between two centers of power - China and Russia,

As a "serious risk", indirectly indicated the US trade war with China - a "clash globally two main trends - globalization and nationalism." Indeed, the confrontation between Beijing as a driver of globalization, and Washington, which focuses on protectionism, ricochet beats and Nur-Sultan, economically dependent on China's demand for Kazakh raw products. Attempts to change the foreign policy of Kazakhstan's position on sensitive issues for China, it is very clearly be seen during the recent visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Nur-Sultan.

Another, interesting point is the Concept of "the emergence of new factors of influence on geopolitics and geo-economics, including related to the phenomenon of hybrid warfare." This wording - new to this kind of document, although the term "hybrid war" previously met in the senior management of the country statements, and "hybrid methods of struggle" marked at the Military Doctrine of Kazakhstan, as one of the threats to the security of the state. It is obvious that the "phenomenon of hybrid" denser lies in understanding and language and, although the source of "hybrid" threats remain for reasons of political correctness is not known, it is clear that the country's leadership more sensitive to the possibility of such risks. The remaining items - the aggravation of traditional threats, terrorism, extremism, arms race, economic challenges, etc.

In response to these factors it is invited to "bring the system of foreign policy views and diplomatic instruments in line with the long-term reality," that is, to develop new approaches to international relations of Kazakhstan. Traditional positions, such as peace-loving, multi-vector policy, pragmatism, proactivity - have not changed, but there are new challenges that were not there in the previous Concept for 2014-2020. For example, instead of the aspiration of Kazakhstan to "the development of regional integration in Central Asia in order to reduce conflict potential, solving social and economic problems, isolation unit of water and energy and other contradictions" in the new document refers to securing the status of Kazakhstan as "a leading state in the region of Central Asia " that indicates the appearance of ambitions to become a regional leader. To do this, you must also comply with the concept of "hearing of the state" (the brainchild of President Tokayev) and enter one of the thirty most developed countries in the world. Interesting is the fact that Kazakhstan, which again confirms the need for a new economic course, aware of the critical dependence of the economic (and hence the socio-political) security of the country and the elites of the world oil prices. However, efforts to diversify the economy in order to significantly increase non-oil sources of income at the moment do not show visible progress. Therefore, the formation of a new economic course is certainly positive, but the question remains how this will be carried out in practice, and whether or not made at all. To do this, you must also comply with the concept of "hearing of the state" (the brainchild of President Tokayev) and enter one of the thirty most developed countries in the world. Interesting is the fact that Kazakhstan, which again confirms the need for a new economic course, aware of the critical dependence of the economic (and hence the socio-political) security of the country and the elites of the world oil prices. However, efforts to diversify the economy in order to significantly increase non-oil sources of income at the moment do not show visible progress. Therefore, the formation of a new economic course is certainly positive, but the question remains how this will be carried out in practice, and whether or not made at all. To do this, you must also comply with the concept of "hearing of the state" (the brainchild of President Tokayev) and enter one of the thirty most developed countries in the world. Interesting is the fact that Kazakhstan, which again confirms the need for a new economic course, aware of the critical dependence of the economic (and hence the socio-political) security of the country and the elites of the world oil prices. However, efforts to diversify the economy in order to significantly increase non-oil sources of income at the moment do not show visible progress. Therefore, the formation of a new economic course is certainly positive, but the question remains how this will be carried out in practice, and whether or not made at all.

In the chapter " The basic principles of foreign policy" key position is occupied by "the continuity of the foreign policy of the First President Nursultan Nazarbayev. " This item, which is repeated several times hereinafter Concept is designed to reaffirm the inviolability Elbasy authority, and to assure the inviolability of foreign structures that were built first president. Kazakhstan will continue a multi-vector and pragmatic, and friendly to all subjects of international policy right. The rest of the thesis are traditional for any government: to participate in building a stable, just and democratic world order in global political integration, economic and humanitarian space, the effective protection of the rights, freedoms and legitimate interests of Kazakhstan, etc.

"The goals and objectives of the foreign policy"can be divided into national, regional and global. In the first place there is strengthening of the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, maintaining an independent foreign policy. Among the regional should include the strengthening of the leading position and promote the long-term interests of Kazakhstan in Central Asia, which once again speaks about the ambitions of Kazakhstan firmly established itself as a regional leader. Global objectives are positioning of Kazakhstan as "active and responsible member of the international community, make a significant contribution to international and regional stability and security." The rest - "maintenance-friendly, predictable and mutually beneficial relations with foreign countries in bilateral and multilateral formats,

It is interesting that a separate item (which, incidentally, was absent in the previous concept) said about the need to "promote the conservation and strengthen the unity of the multinational people of Kazakhstan." It is clear that this factor has acquired relevant including in connection with the recent events in Kordai area when domestic conflict on socio-economic grounds in s. Masanchi acquired signs of inter-ethnic massacres. Inclusion of this paragraph in the text of the Concept, most likely, says that Kazakhstan's relations with its neighbors will be built in a way that would not upset the delicate balance of inter-ethnic, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional accord. However, the question remains how they will be implemented this task, since Russia is already preparing a solid set of amendments to the law on simplified obtaining Russian citizenship by foreigners, including for Kazakhstan. Considering the large number of ethnic Russian in the north of Kazakhstan, the close economic, kinship and cultural ties, it is clear that those wishing to obtain a passport of a foreign state without abandoning their own, in Kazakhstan will be a lot. This factor is likely to not be "to strengthen the unity of the multinational people of Kazakhstan", therefore, the question of how the Nur-Sultan will face the challenge - remains unanswered. that wanting to get the passport of a foreign state without abandoning their own, in Kazakhstan will be a lot. This factor is likely to not be "to strengthen the unity of the multinational people of Kazakhstan", therefore, the question of how the Nur-Sultan will face the challenge - remains unanswered. that wanting to get the passport of a foreign state without abandoning their own, in Kazakhstan will be a lot. This factor is likely to not be "to strengthen the unity of the multinational people of Kazakhstan", therefore, the question of how the Nur-Sultan will face the challenge - remains unanswered.

Chapter with In "Trends and vision of foreign policy"It is the highest priority (and in fact - quite natural) state activities in four areas: the maintenance of international peace and security; in the field of economic diplomacy; respect for human rights, humanitarian diplomacy and the environment; in regional and multilateral diplomacy. The most interesting, from my point of view, is the distribution of "geographical" priorities of cooperation. The previous concept under the heading "Country and regional priorities", in the first place, and a separate item stood to strengthen relations with the Russian Federation, China has for him, Central Asian countries, the United States, European Union and other countries in the regions. In the current version, this section is called "Priorities for regional and multilateral diplomacy" the first item of which was suddenly "giving the UN Habu in Almaty, the UN Interregional Center status in Kazakhstan to sustainable development and the promotion of its activities in Central Asia and Afghanistan." In second place, and no longer as a separate item, as in the block together with other countries - "the further development of allied relations with the Russian Federation, a comprehensive strategic partnership with China, an expanded strategic partnership with the United States strategic relationship with Central Asia, the extended partnership and cooperation with the EU. " It is also said to continue close cooperation with member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC), but with a caveat - "to set the EAEC Treaty on the spheres." Additionally stated, about "the need to optimize approaches to management of the negotiating process within the framework of the EAEC in order to fully taking into account the long-term national interests of Kazakhstan." These reservations are probably a consequence of Russia's desire to extend the Union on the other, not only the economic sphere, on the basis of the Union State with Belarus, Kazakhstan is perceived as a threat to sovereignty. Also, it is obvious that Kazakhstan is concerned and the results of membership in EAEC, especially with regard to the reduction of exports of domestic producers, the increase in imports in Kazakhstan, the barriers faced by Kazakhstan business, producing products with added value, and others. They are the result of Russia's desire to extend the Union on the other, not only the economic sphere, on the basis of the Union State with Belarus, Kazakhstan is perceived as a threat to sovereignty. Also, it is obvious that Kazakhstan is concerned and the results of membership in EAEC, especially with regard to the reduction of exports of domestic producers, the increase in imports in Kazakhstan, the barriers faced by Kazakhstan business, producing products with added value, and others. They are the result of Russia's desire to extend the Union on the other, not only the economic sphere, on the basis of the Union State with Belarus, Kazakhstan is perceived as a threat to sovereignty. Also, it is obvious that Kazakhstan is concerned and the results of membership in EAEC, especially with regard to the reduction of exports of domestic producers, the increase in imports in Kazakhstan, the barriers faced by Kazakhstan business, producing products with added value, and others.

As a conclusion it should be noted that despite the strength of the traditional foreign policy priorities of Kazakhstan's diplomacy still exhibits some flexibility in response to rapidly changing conditions in the environment regionally and globally. The new concept, at least partially cemented by already established principles, but still gives room for maneuver in the international arena, and more actively defend their national interests. The effectiveness of these same actions will largely depend on the willingness and readiness of the political elites to implement the tasks. Otherwise, the document will be a formality.

THE ORIGINAL OF THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED ON MARCH 11, 2020 ON CACDC.ORG.UA. 

THE AUTHOR'S BIO: 

Yuri Poita is the Head of Section of the Asia-Pacific region at CACDS (Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmamanet Studies, Kyiv, Ukraine). 

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11.03.2020 14:03