Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has arrived in Russia to attend an environmental forum in Siberia. The visit came as a surprise against the backdrop of increasingly strained relations between Armenia and Russia, driven by Yerevan’s pivot toward the West, criticism of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, and discussions about Armenia’s possible withdrawal from the CSTO.

The official agenda of the trip is stated as participation in an “international forum on environmental policy and climate change”. However, according to sources in Armenian and Russian diplomatic circles, informal meetings between Pashinyan and Kremlin representatives are not ruled out, which could become an attempt to restore at least working channels of dialogue.

The environmental theme provides Pashinyan with a convenient pretext to visit Russia without declaring the trip as officially political. This helps him avoid criticism from the pro-Western segment of Armenian society, where visits to Moscow are now seen as a step backward.

For the Kremlin, Pashinyan’s visit is an opportunity to gauge Armenia’s willingness to compromise and keep it within Moscow’s sphere of influence. For Yerevan, it is a chance to assess whether Russia is ready to make concessions, for instance, on border security or arms supplies.

In recent months, Armenia has been actively strengthening ties with France, the U.S., and the EU (military contracts, economic aid, and discussions on European integration). The visit to Russia may be an attempt to balance between East and West to avoid a complete break with Moscow, which could be risky in terms of military security.

Pashinyan also needs to demonstrate that he is in control of all foreign policy directions. Showing an independent diplomatic course may bolster his position domestically, where the opposition accuses him of isolating Armenia.

The visit is unlikely to lead to a sudden warming of relations: trust between Yerevan and Moscow has been undermined, and Russia, preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, is unlikely to offer Armenia serious security guarantees. However, such contacts may become a first step toward freezing the conflict of interests, provided both sides maintain a pragmatic approach.

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26.07.2025 10:11