U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House on August 8 for the signing of a memorandum of understanding, which could mark the first step toward a comprehensive peace agreement between the two countries.

The memorandum will be preliminary in nature, but according to sources, it includes a number of political and infrastructure-related agreements, including the unblocking of regional transport routes, security guarantees, and potential U.S. mediation in the future peace process.

At the same time, the Trump administration is conducting intensive negotiations on expanding the so-called Abraham Accords – an international diplomatic initiative launched in 2020 to normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries. This time, the focus has shifted to Azerbaijan and several Central Asian nations.

A prerequisite for Azerbaijan’s participation in the new phase of the Abraham Accords is a peaceful resolution of its conflict with Armenia. The U.S. believes that resolving Armenian-Azerbaijani tensions will help build a stable regional architecture, enabling the integration of the South Caucasus into a broader geopolitical alliance.

Thus, the U.S. is making a return to the region – after several years of disengagement from Caucasus affairs, Washington is making a bold diplomatic move by promoting a peace-oriented agenda instead of relying on sanctions or pressure. This sharply contrasts with the policy of the previous Biden administration and is particularly significant against the backdrop of deteriorating Azerbaijan-Russia relations.

Azerbaijan is a key to Central Asia and energy corridors: By involving Baku in the Abraham Accords, the U.S. gains access to the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and indirectly, to Central Asia. This is seen as a strategic step to counterbalance the growing influence of China and Iran.

Armenia, in turn, gains new security levers beyond Russia – as relations with Moscow have worsened, Yerevan is seeking alternative guarantees. U.S. support is not just symbolic; it represents a step toward a military-diplomatic realignment.

Iran may view the U.S. activation and the idea of the Zangezur Corridor as a direct threat to its southern interests. Iranian officials have already issued warnings that any "extraterritorial infrastructure" in Armenia could provoke a "harsh response". Meanwhile, Russia is likely to interpret this as its displacement from a strategically vital region, particularly amid its ongoing diplomatic standoff with Azerbaijan.

If the Washington meeting goes ahead and proves successful, we may witness the beginning of a new era in diplomacy in the South Caucasus. The region, long seen as a hotspot of conflict, could be transformed into a zone of cooperation – integrated into international alliances backed by the West and moderate Eastern powers.

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#AZERBAIJAN

06.08.2025 06:27