The current state of Armenia’s national security is quite complex and multi-layered, as the country is situated in a region where geopolitical challenges and regional conflicts constantly affect its stability. The Caucasus, as a key strategic point in Eastern Eurasia, is a unique crossroads of cooperation and contradictions, involving global and regional actors such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan. The purpose of this analysis is to present Armenia's security situation by addressing the current threats and the strategic approaches that must be developed to safeguard the country’s sovereignty and security.

Armenia's national security faces a range of threats, which can be categorized into military, political, economic, and social challenges:

1. Military threats are directly linked to the ongoing tension with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, continues to strengthen its military capabilities, which directly threatens Armenia's territorial integrity.

2. Political threats are driven by the changing dynamics between regional powers, with contradictions between Russian and Western interests, as well as possible diplomatic missteps by Armenia.

3. Social threats are tied to domestic issues, including economic instability and the potential for political and popular clashes resulting from public discontent.

4. Economic threats are primarily related to Armenia’s external trade and energy dependency on Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The closed borders imposed by Turkey and Azerbaijan hinder the flow of essential goods and energy resources into Armenia. Transport routes through Georgia or Iran further extend delivery times and increase the cost of imports. As a result, Armenia is deprived of short, cheap, and fast supply options, limiting its connection to foreign markets and its competitiveness. Turkey and Azerbaijan control the region’s key transport and energy corridors, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the TANAP and TAP gas pipelines. This, in turn, severely limits Armenia’s energy independence, leaving it dependent on Russia and Iran. Georgia, as a crucial transport corridor, is also subject to economic and political pressures. It shares open borders with both Turkey and Azerbaijan, meaning that in times of political change, Georgia can influence Armenia’s situation. As a transit country, it could be used to restrict Armenia’s economic maneuvering. Turkey and Azerbaijan also control access to regional markets, which creates trade pressures on Armenia. Additionally, Turkish goods dominate the local market, leaving Armenian products at a disadvantage and raising concerns about local producers' competitiveness. All of this obstructs the country’s economic growth and development, limiting its opportunities and independence.

Armenia’s national security strategy must be balanced and long-term. It is essential to respond to these threats by developing a strategic policy that combines diplomatic and defense tools. This should include not only the deepening of strategic allied relations with Russia, but also the promotion of cooperation with other countries, including Iran, Georgia, and European partners. Additionally, supporting the South Caucasian countries can help Armenia strengthen its position in the region. The aim of such a strategy is not only to maintain Armenia as a secure country within the region but also to garner support from the international community.

In military and diplomatic relations, Armenia’s primary strategic ally remains Russia, one of the key pillars of the country's security. However, as one of the world’s great powers, Russia is also interested in building strategic relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, which can sometimes conflict with Armenia’s security interests. Therefore, Armenia must develop a flexible diplomatic policy to avoid unilateral dependence and maintain balance in its foreign relations. A serious diplomatic strategy is also necessary with Iran, which, in addition to providing economic support to Armenia, can play a significant role in the region in terms of balancing power. More specifically, Armenia is an important ally for Russia as it allows Russia to maintain its military bases in the Caucasus, particularly in the Armenian city of Gyumri, which is critical to Russia’s strategic interests. Armenia's geographical location, at the heart of the Caucasus, allows Russia to maintain a certain degree of control in the region, especially in terms of countering potential threats from Turkey and Iran, as well as resisting the expansion of NATO or Turkish influence. For Russia, it is also important that Armenia continues to remain a friendly ally, especially amidst tensions with the West and Turkey. Russia is interested in a policy that prevents Armenia from deepening anti-Russian stances and falling under Western pressures. Russia also has significant influence in the Middle East, particularly against the backdrop of Azerbaijan and Turkey’s joint policies, where Armenia’s position again becomes a crucial strategic factor. Economically, Russia is an important partner for Armenia, as a large portion of Armenia’s energy market is under the control of Russian companies. Especially in the energy sector, Russian investments allow Russia to maintain vital economic ties with Armenia. Additionally, Russia continues to be Armenia’s main trade partner, with the Russian market remaining the primary destination for Armenian exports.

Azerbaijan is also an important ally of Russia in the Caucasus, but as Armenia’s ally, Russia often finds itself in conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. At the same time, however, Russia follows a strategy aimed at maintaining its military presence in the region, especially in light of Russian-Azerbaijani joint military exercises. Russia cannot fully control Azerbaijan's military growth due to Turkey’s influence, which plays an active role in the region. Therefore, one of Russia's primary political interests is to keep Azerbaijan within its sphere of influence, regardless of how compatible Azerbaijan's actions are with those of Turkey. Azerbaijan’s independent oil and gas resources allow it to pursue energy policies between the Caucasus and Europe, bypassing Russia's monopoly. However, economic competition, particularly in the energy sector, could create political tensions between both Russia and Azerbaijan, as well as between Russia and Armenia, potentially complicating regional relations.

The joint actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan are aimed at increasing Turkey’s regional influence in the Caucasus and the Middle East. Therefore, the strategic alliance between the two countries is directed at limiting Russian influence in the Caucasus. On the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Turkey fully supports Azerbaijan in both the political and military arenas, making Turkey one of Armenia’s main adversaries. Turkey is an important trade partner in the region, especially in joint energy and transport projects with Georgia and Azerbaijan. However, Turkey seeks to diversify its energy sources by creating a broader network for oil and gas supply in order to achieve energy independence. In this regard, Turkey's economic interests clash with those of Armenia and Russia.

Iran has long-standing historical ties with Armenia within the framework of strategic partnership. Iran's strategic interests for Armenia include a willingness to counterbalance the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region. As Armenia's ally, Iran is interested in preventing the growing influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus. This cooperation creates an opportunity for Iran to use Armenia as a gateway into the Caucasus, helping to prevent a decline in its influence in the region. Throughout the region, Iran seeks to maintain its political role while avoiding the rising influence of the West, particularly the U.S. and Israel. Armenia, as Iran's only ally in the Caucasus, allows Iran to maintain more balanced relations by creating a counterweight to Turkey and Azerbaijan, who are on the opposite side. Iran is also an important economic partner for Armenia, especially in the energy sector. The two countries share joint energy projects, including gas exchange and energy dependence. Iran is also interested in using Armenia as a gateway to European markets, which is mutually beneficial for both countries.

Georgia is Armenia's strategic partner, but its strategic interests often also align with the West, particularly regarding NATO membership and general security policies. In order to preserve its independence, Georgia actively develops cooperation with the West, while also avoiding conflicts with Russia by accepting Russian influence in the region. While Georgia is Armenia's ally, occasional disagreements arise over foreign policy and security strategies. Armenia maintains positive relations with Georgia, especially in the face of occasional economic and political pressures. Georgia is important for Armenia as a transport corridor, and the two countries share common economic interests, particularly in the energy and logistics sectors. Georgia also plays a strategic economic role, as it provides a key export route for Armenia to Europe, acting as the main corridor. Therefore, Armenia's strategy must take into account the political, military, economic, and territorial interests of several external players, including Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, and Georgia. Armenian diplomacy must be flexible, supporting mutually beneficial relations while also ensuring the necessary balance for national security.

Thus, Armenia's primary security threat is the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan. However, this tension is not limited to military threats alone; it also involves numerous external actors who influence the nature and strategic direction of the conflict. In order to achieve peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, long-term political compromises must be made, but their relationship is often hindered by national and regional interests.

Therefore, Armenia's primary focus must be on improving its armed forces through the integration of modern defense technologies and enhanced strategic preparedness. Both military and diplomatic strategies must include strengthening and modernizing Armenia's military forces, with a focus on the development of air defense systems, cybersecurity, and microelectronics. The defense policy should be geared towards strategic deterrence, but also include preparedness to prevent the advance of an adversary. In this context, Armenia's cooperation with NATO countries is also crucial, as it could significantly enhance not only diplomatic opportunities but also the modernization of the defense system.

Among the latest challenges, Armenia faces hybrid threats related to information warfare and social media. The information war, no less significant than military actions, involves the use of media and social networks to influence public opinion. For this reason, Armenia needs to not only implement strategic defense measures but also establish integrated information security systems to counter not only military threats but also manipulative actions conducted by media and news organizations.

A broader strategy should include actions to maintain Armenia’s internal stability, including prioritizing economic and social reforms, which would enable improvements in Armenia’s defense without internal instability. Domestic injustices, particularly economic instability and social dissatisfaction, can lead to unhealthy political situations, which will exacerbate internal security issues.

Thus, Armenia’s national security strategy should include a balanced foreign policy, military modernization, and the implementation of internal reforms, so that Armenia can not only effectively counter external threats but also maintain internal stability and popular support in the long run.

Journalist,
Adrine Torosyan

#ARMENIA

05.12.2025 02:30