The ongoing dispute between the government and the so-called opposition puts Armenian President Armen Sargsyan in an uncomfortable position. On the one hand, Sargsyan is besieged by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who unsuccessfully seeks the resignation of the head of the General Staff, Onik Gasparyan, from the president. On the other hand, representatives of the pseudo-oppositional "Movement for the Salvation of the Motherland" are seeking an audience with Sargsyan in the hope of persuading him to side with the street "patriots".

Sargsyan is trying to stay on the sidelines, distance himself from competing political forces, since the outcome of the current crisis is unpredictable. In conditions of polarization of society, he approaches the choice of political guidelines with the utmost caution. The president cannot side with Pashinyan, whom the opposition considers to be the main culprit in Armenia's defeat in Karabakh - Sargsyan may lose his powers if he supports the prime minister's policy. Now the number of Pashinyan's political opponents is increasing, and in the event of the prime minister's political surrender, Sargsyan will be forced to share his fate. Sargsyan is a diplomat; he has never entered into open confrontation with either the security forces or the military in his entire political career, preferring to withdraw himself in time.

Former first prime minister Vazgen Manukyan and his Movement to Save the Motherland represent an exclusively reactionary wing of Armenian politics. The prospect of cooperation between Sargsyan and Manukyan is unlikely, since for street patriots, the cautious president of Armenia can only be a tool to remove Pashinyan from power, nothing more. The pseudo-oppositionists allow themselves to set conditions before Sargsyan and are ready to accuse him of a military defeat in Karabakh, if he does not apply to the Armenian Constitutional Court on the issue of dismissing the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Onik Gasparyan. Vazgen Manukyan stated this at a rally held on March 6, organized by his supporters.

The third political movement in Armenia was the bloc of former President Robert Kocharian and other members of the Karabakh clan, who adhere to open revanchist sentiments. For the Karabakh separatists, Sargsyan is a conditional figure in Armenian politics, who has long played its role and no longer represents any significance. This is indirectly confirmed by the cautious campaign of Kocharian's supporters against Sargsyan, who believe that the president's behavior in connection with the resignation of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces looks at least strange. It is not known exactly how Kocharian plans to begin restoring separatist power, but in the future he may choose for himself a modest presidential position by today's standards. If we talk about the prime minister's office, it is highly likely that Kocharyan may not even be included in the party list of one or another party that is ready to participate in the parliamentary elections, but he will probably want to oversee the activities of the government if his supporters win the elections.

Armenian top military officials, whose political activity has noticeably increased these days, also do not inspire confidence in Sargsyan, since they are building their own line of defense against possible accusations of defeat in the last war. The generals are unable to proclaim themselves at the head of the government, therefore the option of a military coup is futile, especially since it leads Armenia to isolation from the West. The position of the Armenian generals boils down to the fact that now the army does not interfere with the civilians to squeeze Pashinyan out of the prime minister's post.

 

Source - vestnikkavkaza.net

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09.03.2021 09:30