The changing nature of the Russia–Ukraine war, the increasing robotisation of warfare, the erosion of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s operational capabilities and the growing threat of hybrid warfare against NATO member states point to profound shifts in the military and strategic environment of Eastern Europe. According to Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Samus, the conflict has long since evolved beyond conventional frontline warfare, taking on an increasingly pronounced technological and geopolitical dimension.

In the interview, Samus examines Russia’s strategic objectives, the situation on the battlefield, advances in unmanned systems, the shifting naval balance of power in the Black Sea, and NATO’s role in maintaining regional security.

Russia’s Strategic Objectives and the Changing Nature of Warfare

According to Mykhailo Samus, the Kremlin’s strategic objectives extend far beyond the seizure of Ukrainian territory. They encompass a much broader ambition: the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and national identity. Within this framework, military aggression serves as an instrument of long-term pressure on Ukraine and an attempt to undermine its ability to pursue an independent political and military strategy.

The expert also highlights the changing nature of modern warfare. The traditional concept of the front as a clearly defined line of contact is gradually losing its relevance. Sustained missile and drone strikes against energy infrastructure, transport networks and industrial facilities have turned virtually the entire territory of Ukraine into an area exposed to potential military threats.

Samus also draws attention to the human factor and the specific characteristics of Russia’s military recruitment system. In his assessment, the Russian military is capable of sustaining combat operations despite significant personnel losses, making the future trajectory of the conflict more difficult to predict.

Robotisation and the Technological Revolution on the Battlefield

One of the key factors transforming modern warfare, according to the expert, is the rapid development of unmanned and robotic systems.

Ukraine is expanding its use of aerial and ground-based unmanned platforms, gradually establishing a new model of warfare. Particular importance is being attached to so-called kill zones — areas of intense surveillance and strike activity that, according to the expert, can extend up to 20 kilometres on either side of the frontline.

Under these conditions, the presence of military personnel in certain areas has become increasingly dangerous. Remotely operated systems, robotic platforms and technologies incorporating elements of artificial intelligence are playing an increasingly important role in combat operations.

This transformation signals a shift towards a new technological model of warfare, in which reconnaissance, automation and operational control are becoming as important as troop numbers and conventional weaponry.

The Black Sea: A Changing Naval Balance of Power

The situation in the Black Sea occupies a central place in Samus’s analysis. The expert argues that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine fundamentally altered the existing balance of naval power in the region.

The destruction of the Russian missile cruiser Moskva became a major turning point, demonstrating the vulnerability of even large warships to modern anti-ship weapons.

Ukraine subsequently focused on developing maritime unmanned systems operated by units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The deployment of these platforms has enabled Ukraine to strike Russian naval assets, restrict the operational freedom of the Black Sea Fleet and maintain a persistent threat to its vessels.

According to Samus, Russian naval forces have been forced to revise their operational posture and relocate a significant portion of their vessels from occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk. This has substantially reduced Moscow’s ability to maintain its previous level of control over the Black Sea.

Consequently, Ukraine’s maritime drone capabilities have become one of the key factors challenging traditional assumptions about naval superiority in the region.

NATO and Growing Hybrid Threats in the Black Sea Region

Addressing regional security, Samus warns of the expanding range of hybrid threats posed by Russia. These include airspace violations, drone incursions, sabotage operations and other provocations aimed at testing NATO member states’ readiness to respond to potential escalation.

The expert identifies NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Romania, Bulgaria and Poland, as especially vulnerable. In his assessment, such incidents allow Moscow to gauge the political resolve of its opponents, assess their decision-making processes and test the effectiveness of existing collective security mechanisms.

Samus also highlights the absence of a unified NATO operational command structure specifically dedicated to the Black Sea region. In his view, this complicates coordination among allied states and creates additional opportunities for Russia to exploit existing security gaps.

In this context, security in the Black Sea has become a matter of strategic importance not only for the coastal states but also for the wider Euro-Atlantic defence architecture.

The US Factor and the Prospects for Continued Support for Ukraine

Another important part of the interview focuses on the policies of the Donald Trump administration and their implications for the future course of the war.

Samus believes that Washington’s attempts to increase pressure on Kyiv in pursuit of political concessions could encounter resistance within the American political system. In particular, the US Congress retains considerable influence over the country’s foreign policy, while bipartisan support for Ukraine remains an important factor in American politics.

According to the expert, the future trajectory of US support for Ukraine will depend not only on decisions made by the White House but also on the domestic political balance of power in the United States.

Strategic Assessment

Mykhailo Samus’s analysis highlights several interconnected trends shaping the military and political environment in Europe:

1. The Russia–Ukraine war is gradually evolving into a high-tech confrontation in which unmanned systems, robotisation and artificial intelligence are significantly transforming the tactics and operational capabilities of the opposing sides;
2. The changing balance of power in the Black Sea demonstrates that technological superiority in specific military domains can constrain the capabilities of a traditionally more powerful naval force;
3. The expansion of hybrid threats is increasing the strategic importance of Romania, Bulgaria and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank, reinforcing the need for closer coordination of the Alliance’s defence mechanisms.

In the broader geopolitical context, these developments point to the emergence of a new security architecture in the Black Sea region, where military technologies, control over maritime communications and the political resilience of Western allies are becoming increasingly interconnected elements of strategic competition.

#RUSSIA

#INTERVIEW

#UKRAINE

08.11.2026 04:41